Daily Economic Outlook: 23rd July, 2015

UK retail sales scheduled to release today will provide a timely update on the health of the country's consumer sector. The combined 1.1% rise in headline retail sales volumes across both April and May highlighted the buoyancy of consumers in the UK. Volume growth has been supported by a boost to discretionary spending power in recent months, reflecting a combination of the decline in inflation, the pickup in earnings growth and buoyant consumer sentiment. 

"In what are highly volatile data at the best of times - and with a tenuous mapping into national accounts measures of household consumption - we look for another firm rise in retail activity. We forecast a 0.6% rise in the ex-auto fuel series and a 0.7% rise in headline sales volumes", according to Lloyds Bank.

Available indicators for retail activity in June are mixed with the weakness in the CBI report not reflected in other surveys. Notably BRC sales point to a firming in the annual growth rate. 

"In an otherwise quiet day, weekly initial jobless claims should provide some additional insight into the health of the US labour market ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, euro area consumer confidence will highlight the extent to which Grexit fears have impacted upon consumer sentiment in July", added Lloyds Bank.