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Daily Economic Outlook: 3rd July, 2015

  • With US markets closed for a public holiday, attention will be primarily  focussed on the June services PMI prints in the UK and the euro area for a steer on the near-term growth outlook. 

  • In the UK the June PMI's have so far been mixed. The manufacturing index, which was released on Wednesday, fell back to a weaker-than-expected 51.4 which was its lowest reading since April 2013.
  • On the other hand, the construction PMI, published yesterday, rose for the second month in a row to a stronger-than-expected 58.1. While last month's services PMI dipped sharply to a four-month low of 56.5 which raises some concerns about Q2 output, several factors suggest that underlying activity remains strong. Specifically, the business expectations balance, which has a better mapping to official output, rose to 71.5 from 71.1. 
"Moreover, other survey evidence from the CBI and our own Business Barometer point to a rebound in today's release. We look for a rise to 57.3", states Lloyds Bank.
  • The final services PMIs for France, Germany and the euro area are also released. These are all expected to be unchanged from their preliminary prints which all point to a continuation of the 0.4% q/q Q1 rise in euro area activity, added Lloyds Bank.  

  • Euro area retail sales for May are also published this morning. Volumes traded rose by 0.7% m/m in April, which was the fastest monthly pace since February last year. Lloyds Bank is expecting a softening to 0.3% m/m which would still leave sales on track for a Q2 pickup compared to Q1 when they fell by an average of 0.1% each month.

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