Dollar Holds Steady Ahead of U.S. CPI as Oil Surge, Middle East Tensions Keep Markets on Edge

The U.S. dollar traded little changed on Tuesday as investors awaited key U.S. inflation data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision, while rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East supported oil prices and kept financial markets cautious.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, held at 101.27 ahead of the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Markets will also watch the June Producer Price Index (PPI) due on Wednesday and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first semiannual testimony before Congress for further policy signals.

Investor sentiment remained cautious after President Donald Trump announced that the United States was reinstating a naval blockade on Iran and would keep the Strait of Hormuz open for commercial shipping through a paid security arrangement. The move followed renewed missile and drone exchanges between U.S. and Iranian forces, with Tehran claiming it had again closed the strategically important waterway.

The geopolitical escalation pushed energy prices sharply higher. Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures extended gains after jumping more than 9% on Monday, reaching their highest levels since mid-June.

Currency markets were largely steady. The euro traded at $1.1383, while the British pound held at $1.3347. The Japanese yen remained weak near 162.40 per dollar, close to multi-decade lows, keeping traders alert for potential intervention by Japanese authorities.

Market attention also remained on Federal Reserve policy. Governor Christopher Waller said interest rates may need to rise soon if inflation continues to exceed the central bank’s 2% target. Analysts noted that a stronger-than-expected core CPI reading could reinforce expectations of another Fed rate hike as early as July. Fed funds futures currently imply roughly 30 basis points of additional tightening this year.

The yen also came under pressure after reports that Japan has no immediate plans to alter the investment strategy of its Government Pension Investment Fund, easing expectations for stronger domestic asset support. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar traded at $0.6915, New Zealand’s dollar rose to $0.5762, while Bitcoin climbed to around $62,294 and Ether advanced to approximately $1,776.