Dollar Slips as Bond Market Stabilizes Amid Iran Tensions and Fed Rate Hike Expectations

The U.S. dollar weakened on Monday as the global bond market sell-off showed signs of slowing, while investors remained cautious over ongoing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell 0.3% to 99.19 after recording its strongest weekly performance in more than nine months.

Global bond yields had surged last week after inflation data from major economies highlighted the economic impact of rising oil prices linked to the Iran conflict and the continued disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors responded by increasing expectations that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may continue raising interest rates throughout 2026. However, market pressure eased slightly on Monday as U.S. Treasury yields stabilized.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in the possibility of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes at upcoming policy meetings. Analysts believe inflation risks remain elevated due to geopolitical instability and higher energy costs. Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi warned that persistent inflation expectations could force the Federal Reserve to maintain aggressive monetary tightening, even if it weakens economic growth.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a planned military strike on Iran had been delayed following diplomatic requests from Gulf leaders. Trump stated that negotiations with Tehran were ongoing and emphasized that any future agreement must ensure Iran does not develop nuclear weapons. Despite renewed diplomatic efforts, major disagreements remain over Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

In currency markets, the euro and British pound gained against the dollar, while the Japanese yen weakened slightly. Investors are also closely monitoring the ongoing G7 finance ministers meeting in France, where policymakers are discussing the economic consequences of the Middle East conflict and increased market volatility.