EUR/GBP Forecast: Bearish Trend Continues Amid Economic Uncertainty

EURGBP showed a minor sell-off on policy divergence between ECB and BOE. Intraday  bias  remains bearish  as long as resistance 0.8500 holds. It hits an  intraday low  of 0.84186 and is currently trading around 0.84291.

The economic performance of Germany was characterized by mixed results in the flash PMI data from May 2025. The Manufacturing PMI reached a peak of 48.8 within 33 months, while the output index continued to increase at varying degrees. A significant contraction was observed in the Services PMI Business Activity Index, which hit a 30-month low of 47.2. The Composite PMI Output Index fell to 48.6, marking the initial period of private-sector business activity this year. In May 2025, the Manufacturing PMI data from the UK indicated continued manufacturing contraction, with a 45.1 overall index, reflecting deteriorating output, new orders, and employment as global economic uncertainty intensified. The PMI for the Services showed a slight increase to 50.2, while it improved slightly to 49, the Composite PMIn (which is generally speaking positive and implies that private sector activity is on the verge of contracting but showing moderate growth).

Technical Analysis

The pair is currently trading below  55 and 200- EMA and below 365-EMA on the 4-hour chart.

Bearish Trend Confirmation: Any break below 0.8420 confirms an intraday bearish trend. A drop to 0.8378/0.8340/0.8300 is likely.

Near-Term Resistance:  The near-term resistance is around 0.8480. Any violation above will take the pair to 0.8500/0.8550/0.8605/ 0.8660/0.8765/0.8800.

Indicator Analysis (4-hour chart)

• CCI (50): Bullish
   
• Average Directional Movement Index:  Neutral

Trading Recommendation

It is good to sell on rallies around 0.84450 with SL around 0.8500  for a TP of 0.8300.