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The recent data released by NBH revealed that non-resident investors were net sellers of government bonds of around HUF 111bn during September. This net sale has started from February 2015 and cumulated HUF 1.3tn so far.
The government bonds declining to 33.1% from 44.1% at the beginning of the year as the foreigners hold shares in local currency.
After investors suffered due to fall in asset prices in Ukraine and generally felt the pressure of upcoming Fed rate hikes on EM valuations, the sales most likely reflect portfolio allocation moving away from lower-rated sovereigns this year.
Therefore, there is a significant improvement in Hungary's own credit situation over the past couple of years, with rating agency Moody's upgrading its outlook to 'positive' earlier this week to match Fitch's outlook.
"A reasonable likelihood of an actual rating upgrade to investment grade is seen during 2016. Nevertheless, we forecast EUR-HUF to rise from current levels to 320.00 by the middle of 2016 as monetary policy is eased further using QE", says Commerzbank.
