EUR/USD Surges Past 1.1765 on Dismal US Jobs Data: Bullish Momentum Builds with Eyes on 1.1900

EUR/USD breaks significant resistance 1.1765 after a dismal US jobs data. It hits an intraday high of 1.17944 and is currently trading around 1.17741.  Intraday trend remains bullish as long as support 1.1700 holds. 

The November 2025 U.S. jobs report revealed a weakening labor market, with nonfarm payrolls rising by only 64,000—well below the 90–100k needed to match population growth and signaling slowing hiring momentum—while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.6% due to a modest increase in unemployed individuals amid flat labor force participation, reflecting weak demand rather than new entrants. Wage growth remained moderate, with average hourly earnings up 0.3% month-over-month for an annual pace around 3.8%, down from cycle peaks above 5% and aligning with cooling inflation toward the Fed's 2% target, potentially supporting continued or accelerated rate cuts in 2026 if activity softens further. Job gains were concentrated in healthcare and government sectors, while manufacturing, transportation, and temporary services saw ongoing or deepening losses, typical of late-cycle trends. Meanwhile, October 2025 retail sales were unexpectedly flat month-over-month, missing forecasts and indicating a consumer spending pause amid rising living costs and tariff impacts on items like autos and electronics; core retail sales showed some resilience but fell short of expectations, underscoring caution despite year-over-year gains. Complementing this, the preliminary ADP NER Pulse reported private job gains averaging 16,250 per week for the four weeks ending November 29, 2025, marking a recovery from mid-November weekly losses of about 9,250 and stabilization after the full November ADP's 32,000 net job cut, driven by small-business and sectoral challenges. Together with weakening PMIs and delayed official data, these signals point to a softening labor market and apprehensive consumers during holiday spending, likely prompting a more cautious Federal Reserve approach to future rate cuts, with the overall cooling—but not collapsing—conditions supportive of accommodative policy and potential medium-term USD weakness against risk assets like equities and crypto.

The pair is holding above the 55 EMA, 200 EMA, and 365 EMA in the 1-hour chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.1800; a break above this may push the pair to targets of  1.1835/1.1850/1.1920. On the downside, support is seen at 1.17200; any violation below will drag the pair to 1.1700/1.1660/1.1600.

Market Indicators and Trading Strategy

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)-  Bullish

Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Bullish

 It is good to buy on dips around 1.1758-60 with a stop-loss at 1.17180 for a target price of 1.1900.