EUR-USD to reach 1.1250 in near future

Fed Governor Janet Yellen is unlikely to signal any need to rush either when she discusses inflation dynamics at the University of Massachusetts today. 

Every-one is full of anticipation about her appearance, but she is unlikely to say anything else than last week and will instead underline once again that most FOMC mem-bers sees a rate hike this year. Depending on the data and the developments in the EM of course. 

So it will probably pay off to take a look at US durable goods orders, which is likely to show a deeply red number in August, mainly as a result of fewer aircraft orders and lower military goods orders. So this is one of the noises mentioned above that may push EUR-USD back towards 1.1250, but that will not change the underlying big picture, argues Commerzbank.