Employment and wage growth to provide guidance on when the Fed will hike: Lloyds Bank

Quotes from Lloyds Bank:

- With recent US data disappointing with the exception of the employment report, Feb's release (Fri) takes on even more importance. Payrolls are forecast to grow by more than 200k in Feb for the 12th successive month, while an expected decline in the unemployment rate to 5.6% would be further evidence of a tightening labour market. 

- Investors will be equally interested in earnings growth, which rose sharply in Jan after disappointing in Dec. Walmart's recent announcement that it is boosting wages is anecdotal evidence of the impact of emerging wage pressure. Any signs wages moved up again would reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike around mid -year. 

- Other data include construction (Mon), consumer spending and spending deflator (Mon), ISMs (Mon and Tues), and international trade (Fri). These could be mixed, with sectors particularly exposed to a strong dollar likely to show slower growth. The trade figures may also be distorted by a West Coast longshoremen strike.