With some data being released last week, both Germany and France saw a weakening in industrial production in March, at -0.7% and -0.3% mom, respectively.
Available national data accounting for 82.4% of global euro area industrial production points to -0.1% mom growth in March (1.8% yoy w.d.a.).
Society Generale expects euro area production growth in February to be revised down from 1.1% mom to 0.8%. This would bring Q1 growth to 0.7% qoq (up from the 0.4% qoq in Q4 14) as lower oil prices and a weaker euro finally impact manufacturing activity. Industrial output would then have contributed positively to euro area economic activity in Q1.
On a regional basis, for France, it must be noted that the significant upward revision of February's figure. Meanwhile, Italy and Spain saw industrial production growth of 0.4% mom and 1.0% mom. Irish industrial output has been quite volatile over the past few months, recording an exceptional 8.4% growth qoq in Q1, and thereby significantly driving euro area industrial production growth.
In particular, over the last two months, Ireland has experienced 27.5% growth in industrial production. This has mainly been the impact of the lower euro driving exports in some key sectors (chemical and pharmaceutical, IT).
