Market Roundup
- ECB raises emergency funding cap for Greek banks by E700 mln.
- MoF flow data week-ended March 28 - Japanese buy net Y396.2 bln foreign stocks, trln bonds, sell Y12.3 bln bills; foreign investors sell net Y35.1 bln Japanese stocks, buy Y187.1 bln bonds, trln bills.
- BoJ Tankan: Japan firms see CPI +1.4% a year out, same as previous survey, +1.6% 3 and 5 years out.
- Japan end-March monetary base trln, + trln over end-February.
- Australia March TD-MI inflation index +0.4% m/m, +1.5% y/y, previous unchanged, +1.3%.
- Australia Feb trade deficit A$1.256 bln, A$1.3 bln consensus, exports +1% m/m, imports +2%.
- Australia Feb quarter job vacancies +0.8%, highest since late '12.
- New Zealand March ANZ commodity price index +4.6% m/m, -11.9% y/y.
- Dairy prices decline, volumes rise at latest NZ Fonterra auction, GDT -10.8%.
- Dalian iron ore futures drops again, -3.5% in Asia PM.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0400 EDT/0800 GMT) Italy Q4ISTAT public deficit/GDP; previous 3.5%.
- (0430 EDT/0830GMT) UK Mar construction PMI, 59.5 consensus; previous 60.1.
- (0730 EDT/1130GMT) US Mar Challenger layoffs; previous 50.58k.
- (0830 EDT/1230GMT) US w/e initial jobless claims, 285k consensus; previous 282k.
- (0830 EDT/1230GMT) US Feb int'l trade balance, $41.2 bln deficit consensus; previous $41.8 bln deficit.
- (0945 EDT/1345GMT) US Mar ISM-New York index; previous 677.60.
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US Feb factory orders, -0.5% m/m consensus; previous -0.2%, -1.8% ex-transport.
Key Events Ahead
- (0550 EDT/0950 GMT)France E7-8 bln 0.5/3.5/3.25% 2025/26/45 OAT auctions.
- (0730 EDT/1130GMT) ECB March 4-5 meeting minutes.
- (0830 EDT/1230GMT) FOMC Chair Yellen speech at Fed Washington, DC conference.
- (1030 EDT/1430 GMT) OECD Gurria, France FinMin Sapin press conference on latest France survey.
- (1545 EDT/1945GMT) Fed Gov Brainard speech.
FX Recap
USD/JPY moved further south on Thursday and currently trades at 119.614 levels, having posted today's low at 119.50 levels. It is likely to find support at 119.29 levels. A dismal ADP employment report followed by lower US yields overnight and concerns over the US non-farm payroll report to be released tomorrow and headwind from option expiries on the upside helped capped the market, even though Nikkei rallied.
AUD/USD was the worst performer in Asia as it hit a fresh low of 0.7567 levels. Australian trade balance figures came in line with the forecasts and hence Aussie remained unaffected. The overall trend still stays the bears as expectations of further rate cut by the RBA, falling iron prices, strengthening USD and AUD/NZD aiming for parity are all weighing on the pair. Resistance might be located at 0.7655 levels and further at 0.7700 levels. Support is likely to be found at 0.7565 levels.
NZD/USD broke below the intraday day support at 0.7450 levels in Asia and hit its lowest at 0.7432 levels, as kiwi remained under pressure by disappointing Fonterra auction result. It currently trades at 0.7474 levels. On the downside, support is likely to be found at 0.7420 levels and then at 0.7390 levels. On the upside, resistance is located at 0.7480 levels and a break above could see the pair testing 0.7500 levels.
EUR/USD remained largely unchanged in the Asian session and currently trades at 1.0778 levels. Traders were sidelined due to the lack of major economic releases. Some bids were seen around 1.0750 levels. Market seems to be capped by large option expiries at 1.0700 and 1.0800 levels.
GBP/USD trades at 1.4831 levels, near yesterday's close. Only a convincing break above 1.4850/60 levels would confirm the bullish trend and expose the 1.4903 levels. The pair faces major support at 1.4802 levels which it has been unsuccessful to beak so far. A break below this level would make the way for 1.4685 levels.
