Market Roundup
•Spanish Jun Manufacturing PMI 52.3, 53.1 forecast,54.0 previous
•Italian Jun Manufacturing PMI 45.7, 44.3 forecast,45.6 previous
•French Jun Manufacturing PMI 45.4, 45.3 forecast ,46.4 previous
•German Jun Manufacturing PMI 43.5, 43.4 forecast,45.4 previous
•EU Jun Manufacturing PMI 45.8, 45.6 forecast,47.3 previous
•UK Jun Manufacturing PMI 50.9, 51.4 forecast,51.2 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:00 German Jun HICP (MoM) 0.2% previous
•12:00 German Jun German CPI (MoM) 0.1% previous
•12:00 German Jun German HICP (YoY) 2.6% forecast,2.8% previous
•12:00 German Jun German CPI (YoY) 2.3% forecast,2.4% previous
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.437% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.699% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.628% previous
•13:45 US Jun Manufacturing PMI 51.7 forecast,51.3 previous
•14:00 US May Construction Spending (MoM) 0.3% forecast,-0.1% previous
•14:00 US Jun ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 45.4 previous
•14:00 US Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI 49.2 forecast,48.7 previous
•14:00 US Jun ISM Manufacturing Prices 55.8 forecast,57.0 previous
•14:00 US Jun ISM Manufacturing Employment 51.1 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro jumped on Monday after a convincing and historic win by the French far right in the first round of parliamentary elections fell slightly short of some expectations, leaving the final result dependent on party deals before a second round next weekend. Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party won the first round of France's parliamentary elections on Sunday by a large margin, exit polls showed, although analysts noted it won a smaller share of the vote than some polls had initially projected, triggering a rally in stocks and bonds.The euro was last 0.4% higher at $1.0759, around a two-week high. It has lost around 1.2% since the French far right triumphed in European parliamentary elections in early June, prompting President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap election in France. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0773(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0818(June 13th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0716(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0687(June 13th high ).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened on Monday as expectations that France's far right party might not secure an outright majority after winning the first round of a national election.. Marine Le Pen's far-right Rassemblement National (RN) won the most votes in the first round of France's parliamentary election on Sunday, with President Emmanuel Macron's grouping in third place behind a left-wing coalition.Yet the final outcome will depend on days of alliance-building before next weekend's second round of votes. Market analysts said RN fared slightly less well than expected and that a hung parliament seemed the most likely outcome, limiting some fears about the party's high-spending fiscal policies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2688(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2749(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2643(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2599(61.8% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Monday as Investor focus turned to Fed June meeting minutes.Investors awaited remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, followed by minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting on Wednesday and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday. Data last week showed that the U.S. prices were unchanged in May while consumer spending rose moderately.Market now sees a 63% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September as well as another cut in December. The dollar index was last 0.14% lower at 105.57, around a one-week low. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9015 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9018 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8977 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8953(50% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Monday as investors were on alert for intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up Japanse yen. The yen has fallen more than 12% this year, with its latest decline to the weaker side of 160 per dollar keeping investors on heightened alert for intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the currency.Data showing weaker-than-expected economic growth added to the uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's next move in interest rates.The BoJ meets in late July and has hinted that it could raise borrowing costs, potentially helping close the yawning gap between Japanese and U.S. rates that has hammered the yen this year by causing investors to flock to the higher returns on U.S. bonds.Separate data on Monday showed the business mood in Japan's service-sector soured in June, offsetting a big lift in factory confidence. Strong resistance can be seen at 161.33(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 161.95(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.92 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 158.49(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks gained on Monday, with French shares leading the charge after the far-right National Rally (RN) party scored historic gains in the first round of parliamentary election, but by a smaller margin than what some polls had suggested.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.36 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 1.54 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were little changed on Monday as U.S. Treasury yields held firm, while investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could shed light on the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut trajectory.
Spot gold was nearly unchanged at $2,327.50 per ounce, as of 0932 GMT. Prices registered a more than 4% gain in the second quarter. U.S. gold futures eased 0.1% to $2,337.80.
Oil prices rose on Monday, helped by expected peak summer consumption and OPEC+ production cuts, though gains were capped by rising output from other producers and the potential for economic volatility resulting from a changing political landscape.
Brent crude futures rose 42 cents, or 0.5%, to $85.42 a barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 44 cents, or 0.53%, at $81.97.
