Market Roundup
• Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Nov) 2.9%, 2.9% previous
• Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Nov) 3.0%, 3.0% forecast,3.0% previous
•HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Nov) 48.2, 50.7 previous
•HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Nov) 45.2, 42.8 previous
•HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Nov) 43.6, 39.8 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Nov) 45.4, 44.0 previous
•UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov) 39.4, 44.5 forecast,44.1 previous
•EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 0.0%,0.0% forecast,0.1% previous
•EU Retail Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) 1.5%, 1.4% forecast,1.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,960K forecast,1,960K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 219K forecast,216K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 223.75K previous
•15:00 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% previous
•15:00 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Sep) 0.6% previous
•15:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep) 1.4% previous
•15:00 US Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% previous
•15:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Nov) 51.7 previous
•15:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Nov) 53.6 forecast,52.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 15:00 ECB's Lane Speaks
• 17:00 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•18:00 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower versus the dollar on Thursday as investors digested Eurozone retail sales data. Eurozone retail sales were unchanged in October 2025, after a downwardly revised 0.1% rise in September, missing forecasts for a 0.1% increase. Gains in food, drinks and tobacco, as well as fuel sales, were offset by weaker non-food spending.The European Central Bank has reaffirmed its data-driven stance, underscoring that policy decisions will depend on future economic and financial data. With a policy meeting due in two weeks, the ECB is expected to hold rates steady, while markets see just a one-in-four chance of easing next year. The currency has surged over 12% this year, marking its best annual performance since 2017, helped by a softer dollar earlier amid tariff concerns and increasing bets on U.S. rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1674(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1692(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1570(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound steadied against the dollar on Thursday as an upward revision of business activity data painted a brighter picture of the economy. November's S&P Global UK Composite Purchasing Managers' Index, which incorporates both services and manufacturing activity, was revised upwards on Wednesday, supporting the pound. The pound has jumped in the last week after British finance minister Rachel Reeves's long-awaited budget passed the bond market's test without too much fuss.Investors had been concerned that Reeves's announcements, which included tax rises and large-scale spending, could have spooked bond investors, pushing yields higher. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3364(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3427(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3295(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3182(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as unexpectedly strong domestic spending data lent support to the currency. Australian households posted their sharpest spending increase in nearly two years in October, signaling economic heat that could tilt the next interest rate move toward a hike rather than a cut. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed household spending jumped 1.3% to A$78.4 billion ($51.77 billion), driven by year-end sales, following a 0.3% rise in September. A day earlier, figures showed the economy grew at its fastest annual pace in two years in the September quarter, powered by strong business, government, and consumer outlays. The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut rates three times this year to 3.6% and is widely expected to hold steady next week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6619(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6629 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6557(Oct 2nd low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6553(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped on Thursday as yen gained on expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise rates this month. The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in December with the government expected to tolerate such a decision, three government sources familiar with the deliberations said.The BOJ looks set to proceed with a hike in its policy rate to 0.75% from 0.5%, which was flagged by Governor Kazuo Ueda in a speech on Monday, the sources said. It would be the first hike since January.Ueda said on Monday the BOJ will consider the "pros and cons" of raising rates this month, signaling a strong chance of a hike at the December 18-19 meeting. The remarks led the market to price in a roughly 80% chance of a December rate hike, though some market players focused on how the administration of dovish Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi could react. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.17(Dec 1st high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.40 (23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.34 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.35 (50%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares ticked up on Thursday, driven by strength in industrial and auto stocks, as risk appetite revived following two quiet sessions, despite mixed corporate news.
At (GMT 12:38),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.93 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.17 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped slightly on Thursday, pressured by gains in Asian and European stocks that reduced safe-haven buying, while attention shifted to upcoming U.S. economic data and the Fed meeting.
Spot gold fell 0.4% to$4,191.26 per ounce, as of 1252GMT. U.S. gold futures for February delivery were down 0.3%at $4,221 per ounce.
Oil prices held steady on Thursday as markets weighed Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy assets, while stalled peace talks curbed hopes of a deal that could restore Russian oil flows.
Brent crude rose 24 cents, or 0.4%, to $62.91 at 1030 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 33 cents, or 0.6%, to $59.28.
