Market Roundup
•UK May Public Sector Net Cash Requirement 18.135B, -5.217B previous
•UK May Core Retail Sales (YoY) 1.2%,-0.8% forecast,-3.0% previous
•UK May Core Retail Sales (MoM) 2.9%, 1.3% forecast, -2.0% previous
•UK May Retail Sales (YoY) 1.3%, -0.9% forecast,-2.7% previous
•UK May Retail Sales (MoM) 2.9%,1.6% forecast, -2.3% previous
•French Jun Services PMI 48.8, 50.0 forecast,49.3 previous
•French Jun S&P Global Composite PMI 48.2,49.5 forecast,48.9 previous
•French Jun Manufacturing PMI 45.3,46.8 forecast,46.4 previous
•German Jun Composite PMI 50.6,52.7 forecast,52.4 previous
• German Services PMI 53.5,54.4 forecast,54.2 previous
•German Jun German Manufacturing PMI 43.4,46.4 forecast,45.4 previous
•EU Jun S&P Global Composite PMI 50.8,52.5 forecast,52.2 previous
•EU Jun Services PMI 52.6,53.5 forecast,53.2 previous
•EU Jun Manufacturing PMI 45.6,48.0 forecast,47.3 previous
•UK Services PMI51.2,53.0 forecast,52.9 previous
•UK Manufacturing PMI 51.4,51.3 forecast,51.2 previous
•UK Composite PMI51.7,53.1 forecast,53.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Apr Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.5% forecast,-0.6% previous
•12:30 Canada May RMPI (MoM) -0.6% forecast,5.5% previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Retail Sales (MoM) 0.7% forecast, -0.2% previous
•13:45 US Jun Services PMI 53.4 forecast,54.8 previous
•13:45 US Jun S&P Global Composite PMI 54.5 previous
•13:45 US Jun Manufacturing PMI 51.0 forecast,51.3 previous
•14:00 US May Leading Index (MoM) -0.4% forecast,-0.6% previous
•14:00 US May Existing Home Sales 4.08M forecast,4.14M previous
•14:00 US May Existing Home Sales (MoM) -1.9% previous
•14:00 US Natural Gas Storage 69B forecast,74B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•15:00 US Fed Monetary Policy Report
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Friday data showed Euro zone business recovery slows sharply in June. Euro zone business growth slowed sharply this month as demand fell for the first time since February, a survey found, with the bloc's services industry showing some signs of weakening while the downturn in manufacturing took a turn for the worse.That was despite the European Central Bank delivering a widely telegraphed cut to interest rates earlier this month and expectations in a Reuters poll for two more reductions this year.HCOB's preliminary composite Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, sank to 50.8 this month from May's 52.2, confounding expectations in poll for a rise to 52.5. The overall new business index dropped to a four-month low of 49.2 from 51.6.A PMI for the currency union's dominant services industry fell to 52.6 from 53.2. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0726(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0776(50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0674(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0662(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound briefly edged up on Friday, after data showed UK retail sales beat expectations in May, offering some comfort about the resilience of the British consumer a day after the Bank of England paved the way for a possible August rate cut. On Friday, British retail sales volumes rose 2.9% in May, rising sharply from a revised 1.8% fall in April when heavy rain kept shoppers away, the Office for National Statistics. Economists polled had on average forecast sales volumes would increase by 1.5% on the month. A separate release on UK public finances painted a more downbeat picture, which could weigh on gilt prices and, ultimately, sterling. Sterling rose to a session high of $1.2675 shortly after the retail sales numbers, before nudging back to $1.2669, up 0.1% on the day and heading for a third weekly decline of 0.3%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2674(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2704(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2629(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2564(50% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar rose against Swiss franc on Friday as markets awaited U.S. business surveys for clues to determine whether the world's largest economy remains strong enough to withstand high interest rates. The mood was indecisive ahead of the release of S&P Global's U.S. purchasing manager indices, viewed as real-time snapshots of business confidence and economic activity, later in the day.Economists polled expect this month's indices to produce readings above the level of 50, which show activity is expanding, but a slight drop since last month.A robust U.S. economy has propelled Wall Street stocks to record levels and dissuaded the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates from its 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%.Markets are currently clinging to a narrative that the economy and inflation will decelerate just enough for the Fed to ease financial conditions gradually. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8962 (50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8905 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8830 (23.6% fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar touched an eight-week high against yen on Friday as investors assessed Federal Reserve's patient approach to cutting interest rates contrasting with more dovish stances elsewhere. Data on Thursday showed first-time applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell moderately last week, while new housing construction dropped. This, along with tepid retail sales last month, keeps the chance of a September rate cut on the table. The BOJ, at the behest of Japan's finance ministry, spent some 9.8 trillion yen ($61.64 billion) to yank the currency back from a 34-year trough of 160.245 per dollar, reached on April 29. ven so, Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda stressed on Friday that Tokyo stands ready to take further resolute action against speculative, excessive volatility . Strong resistance can be seen at 159.09(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.55(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.83 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 156.86 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Friday, as technology and bank stocks came under pressure, while Danish brewer Carlsberg Group slumped after British soft drinks maker Britvic rejected its $3.9 billion revised takeover proposal.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.62 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.50 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.57 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were set to post a second consecutive weekly gain on Friday as recent softer U.S. economic data kept traders optimistic for interest rate cuts later this year, with other precious metals also heading for a weekly gain.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,363.06 per ounce, as of 0953 GMT, after hitting a two-week high earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,376.70 on the day.
Crude oil futures were little changed on Friday but on course to rise for a second week amid signs of improving demand and falling oil and fuel inventories in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer.
Brent futures for August settlement were down 6 cents to $85.65 a barrel by 1100 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for August delivery were down 5 cents to $81.24.
