Europe Roundup: Pound gains on dollar , European shares advance , Gold lingers near two-week high, Oil prices slip from multi-month highs- July 4th,2024

•Swiss Jun Unemployment Rate n.s.a.  2.3%,2.3%forecast,2.3% previous

•Swiss Jun Unemployment Rate s.a.  2.4%,2.4%    forecast,2.4% previous

•German May Factory Orders (MoM)  -1.6%,0.5% forecast,-0.2% previous

•Swiss Jun CPI (YoY)  1.3%,1.4% forecast,1.4% previous

•Swiss Jun CPI (MoM)  0.0%,0.1% forecast,0.3% previous

•UK  Jun Construction PMI  54.0 forecast,54.7 previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•14:00   US Total Vehicle Sales    15.80M forecast,15.90M previous

•20:30   US Fed's Balance Sheet 7,231B previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releses(GMT)

•11:30   EU ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

Currency  Forecast

EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Thursday  as weak U.S. economic data sent the greenback lower against major pairs . The dollar fell on softer-than-expected U.S. economic data on Wednesday, including a weak services report and ADP employment report, depicting a slowing economy, after a rise in initial applications for unemployment benefits last week.Markets now see nearly 50 basis points of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2024, most likely starting with a 25-basis-point move in September and a second by year-end, bets which also brought down U.S. Treasury yields. Across the English Channel, polls suggested the National Rally (RN) would not win a majority of seats in Sunday's French election as mainstream parties moved to block the far right. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0811 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0843 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0781(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0751(61.8% fib).

GBP/USD: The pound gained on Thursday against a broadly weaker dollar was hurt by soft U.S. economic data, as Britons voted in a parliamentary election that investors hope will bring some stability to British politics.Opinion polls show Keir Starmer's centre-left Labour Party on course for a landslide victory over Prime Minister Rishi Sunaks's Conservatives, who have led the country for 14 often turbulent years.The pound was up 0.1% against the dollar at $1.2755 on Thursday, having gained 0.46% Wednesday after soft U.S. economic data sent the dollar lower across the board.The pound has spent most of 2024 down slightly against the dollar while outperforming other major currencies - though Wednesday's dollar weakness meant sterling was last up 0.23% against the dollar this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2767(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2815(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2691(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2631(61.8% fib).

 USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Thursday after U.S. data had narrowed the odds on a September Fed interest rate cut.The U.S. ISM measure of services activity surprised by sliding to its lowest since mid-2020, with employment notably weak ahead of the June payrolls report due on Friday.Analysts cautioned the series was contradicted by strength in the PMI survey of services, but did note that price measures in both surveys pointed to easing inflation.A run of subdued data mean  U.S. economic surprise index has sunk to -47.5, the lowest since August 2022. Meanwhile, the closely watched Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate fell to just 1.5% from 1.7%.That should be music to the ears of the Federal Reserve, with minutes of its last meeting showing committee members wanted more evidence of a cooling economy before cutting rates.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9050 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9107 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8993(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8967(61.8% fib).

USD/JPY: The U.S. declined against yen on Thursday as dollar   was hurt by soft U.S. economic data . Minutes of the Fed's June meeting acknowledged the U.S. economy appeared to be slowing and  price pressures were diminishing .Traders are now focused on U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, due on Friday. The market is looking for weaker job creation last month,Demand concerns were heightened by U.S. data showing that first-time applications for U.S. unemployment benefits increased last week while jobless numbers also rose.Softer U.S. data has already prompted markets to lift the probability of a September rate cut to 74% from 65%.. Strong resistance can be seen at 161.85(July 3rd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 162.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.92 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 158.49(50%fib).

Equities Recap

European shares rose on Thursday amid optimism around U.S. interest rate cuts following soft economic data, while London markets gained as voting began in the UK with opinion polls predicting a historic win for the Labour party.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.98 percent, Germany's Dax was last up  by 0.24 percent, France’s CAC was last  up  by 0.76 percent.

Commodities Recap

Oil prices eased a touch, having gained the previous day when a surprisingly large decline in U.S. crude stocks pointed to firmer demand as the U.S. driving season gets underway.

Brent dipped 73 cents to $86.62 a barrel, while U.S. crude fell 82 cents to $83.03 per barrel.

Gold prices were little changed on Thursday near a two-week high after softer-than-expected U.S. economic data spurred hopes of interest rate cuts as early as September and focus shifting to non-farm payrolls data.

Spot gold   was unchanged at $2,357.78 per ounce, as of 0959 GMT after prices hit their highest level since June 21 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures   were down 0.1% at $2,366.20.

Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, retreating from the previous session's multi-month highs, with investors taking profits as demand caution remained in focus despite last week's decline in U.S. inventories.

Brent crude futures were down 40 cents, or 0.46%, at $86.94 a barrel by 1105 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 44 cents, or 0.52%, to $83.44 in trade thinned by the U.S. Independence Day holiday.