Market Roundup
•German May Car Registration (YoY) -4.3%,19.8%previous
•German May Car Registration (MoM) -2.7%,-7.9% previous
•French May Car Registration (MoM)-3.9%,-18.4% previous
•French May Car Registration (YoY) -2.9%,10.9% previous
•German May PPI (MoM) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
•Swiss May Trade Balance 5.811B, 3.840B forecast,4.316B previous
•Swiss SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q2)1.25%,1.50% forecast, 1.50% previous
•UK Jun BoE Interest Rate Decision 5.25%,5.25% forecast,5.25% previous
•UK Jun BoE MPC vote cut 2,2 forecast,2 previous
•UK Jun BoE MPC vote hike 0,0 forecast,0 previous
•US May Housing Starts (MoM) -5.5%,4.1% previous
•US May Building Permits 1.386M , 1.450M forecast,1.440M previous
•US May Building Permits (MoM) -3.8% ,-3.0% previous
•US May Housing Starts 1.277M ,1.370M forecast,1.360M previous
•US Jun Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 1.3, 4.8 forecast,4.5 previous
•US Jun Philly Fed Business Conditions 13.8 ,32.4 previous
•US Jun Philly Fed New Orders -2.2 ,-7.9 previous
•US Jun Philly Fed Prices Paid 22.50, 18.70 previous
•US Jun Philly Fed Employment -2.5 ,-7.9 previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 238K , 235K forecast,242K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,828K ,1,810K forecast,1,820K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 232.75K ,227.00K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 3.1% forecast,3.1% previous
•15:00 US Crude Oil Inventories -2.800M forecast, 3.730M previous
•15:00 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -1.593M previous
•20:00 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro remained close to its recent lows on Thursday as markets fretted that French President Emmanuel Macron's gamble to call parliamentary elections could pave the way for the high-spending far right or far left to come to power. Last week, France's president called a snap election, with its high debt levels a source of concern for market participants. France's far-right National Rally (RN) hit back on Thursday at charges from opponents that its spending plans would crash the economy, while President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance said it was the only bulwark against financial mismanagement.The euro was on the back foot again on Thursday, down 0.16% against the dollar to $1.07285 but still above the six-week low of $1.0667 hit on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0753(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0768(38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0706 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0679(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined against dollar on Thursday after the Bank of England left rates unchanged in a dovish decision . The Bank of England kept its main interest rate unchanged at a 16-year high of 5.25% on Thursday ahead of a July 4 election, but some policymakers said their decision not to cut rates was now finely balanced.The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep rates on hold, in line with economists' expectations in a Reuters poll. Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden and external MPC member Swati Dhingra remained the only policymakers to support a cut to 5%.BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in a statement alongside the decision that it was "good news" that the latest inflation data had shown inflation was back at its 2% target, but that it was too soon to cut rates. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2754(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2808(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2676(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2602(50% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar rose on Thursday as Swiss franc declined after the central bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, as expected. Swiss National Bank the central bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, as expected by two-thirds of analysts polled by Reuters, following a quarter-point reduction in March. The SNB's decision had been finely balanced, given a recent rebound in economic growth and a break in the trend of gently falling inflation in Switzerland. The recent rise of the Swiss franc, driven by rising political uncertainty in Europe pushing investors towards the safe haven currency. The dollar climbed 0.6% to 0.8894 Swiss currency. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8964 (50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8829 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8830 (23.6% fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Thursday supported by investor confidence in the prospect of a drop in U.S. interest rates this year. Last week's data showed a moderation in the labour market and price pressures, followed up with soft retail sales data on Tuesday, suggesting that economic activity remained lacklustre in the second quarter.The Fed is looking for further confirmation that inflation is cooling as it steers cautiously towards what most expect to be a rate cut or two by the end of this year.Investors are waiting for more data to give an idea of when the Federal Reserve might start cutting rates, after the U.S. central bank last week projected just one rate cut in the year and policymakers this week have also been cautious.. Strong resistance can be seen at 158.70(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.13(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.46(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 156.24 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares gained on Thursday, boosted by an advance in technology and real estate stocks, while Swiss equities gained after the central bank continued to loosen monetary policy.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.44 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.60 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.98 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit a two-week high on Thursday after recent weak U.S. economic data raised market expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year, while uncertainty around multiple elections globally also lent support.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,340.12 per ounce as of 1137 GMT, after hitting its highest since June 7 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,353.70.
Brent oil futures were steady on Thursday, hovering just below seven-week highs as escalating conflict in the Middle East raised supply disruption fears while the market awaits U.S. inventory data for signals on the demand side.
August Brent crude rose 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $85.35 a barrel by 1145 GMT.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for July , which expire on Thursday, gained 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $81.70.
