Europe Roundup :Sterling eases against dollar, Europe's stocks flat , Gold firms, Oil inches up on supply risks - May 28th,2025

Market Roundup

•German Import Price Index (MoM) (Apr) -1.7%, -1.4% forecast, 3 -1.0% previous          

•German Import Price Index (YoY) (Apr)     -0.4%,0.1% forecast, 2.1% previous                        

•French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Apr) 0.3%,  0.8% forecast,   -1.1% previous

•French GDP (YoY) (Q1)     0.8%, 0.6% previous     

•French GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous                     

• French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q1)   -0.1%,   0.0% forecast,   -0.3% previous 

• EU PPI (YoY) (Apr)  -0.80%, -0.20% previous    

• French PPI (MoM) (Apr) -4.3%, -0.5% previous             

• German Unemployment Change (May) 34K, 12K forecast, 4K previous                              

• German Unemployment Rate (May)   6.3%, 6.3% forecast,6.3% previous                          

• German Unemployment (May) 2.963M, 2.922M previous                        

• German Unemployment n.s.a. (May) 2.919M, 2.932M previous            

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)    

•12:55 Redbook (YoY)   5.4% previous

•14:00   US Richmond Manufacturing Index (May) -9 forecast,-13     previous            

•14:00   US Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (May) -17 previous                       

•14:00   US Richmond Services Index (May) -7 previous                 

•14:30   US Dallas Fed Services Revenues (May)  3.8 previous    

•14:30   US Texas Services Sector Outlook (May) -19.4 previous 

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)

•13:00 FOMC Member Williams Speaks 

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD: The euro weakened on Wednesday as demand for the dollar surged, driven by optimism over potential trade deals and stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence data for May. Investors are now turning their attention to Friday’s release of the April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — which may shed light on the effects of Trump’s trade policies. U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in May after five consecutive months of decline, buoyed by a temporary trade truce with China. However, concerns persist about inflationary pressures from tariffs and broader economic risks. According to the Conference Board, the consumer confidence index rose sharply by 12.3 points to 98.0, surpassing forecasts.  Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1436(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1450(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1535(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1279(May 26th low).

GBP/USD: The British pound slipped on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened, supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence data. The dollar also found additional support from President Trump’s weekend decision to delay higher tariffs on the European Union. Markets are now focused on Friday’s release of the April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure   which could provide further insight into the economic impact of Trump’s trade policies. In the UK, recent data showed a jump in retail sales for April, while the latest inflation reading dampened expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England at its upcoming June meeting. Sterling has risen by 8% against the dollar so far this year, and has regained ground against the euro in the past weeks from its April lows at 87.38 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3558(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3617(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3400(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3317(April 30th low).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar despite better-than-expected domestic inflation data. Consumer inflation in Australia held steady in April, as rising healthcare and holiday costs offset declines in petrol prices. While the data showed some monthly fluctuations, expectations for further interest rate cuts remain largely unchanged. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% in April, matching March’s reading and slightly surpassing the median forecast of 2.3%. The figures may come as a setback for the Reserve Bank of Australia, which cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.85% last week, banking on continued disinflation.At GMT 12:10, the Australian dollar was down 0.24% to 0.6476 against the   dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6499(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6580(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6391(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6352(Lower BB).

 USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data despite ongoing concerns about fiscal health and trade policies. U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in May after five months of decline, boosted by a trade truce with China, though worries over tariffs and their economic impact remain. The Conference Board reported consumer confidence surged 12.3 points to 98.0, well above forecasts of 87.0. Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Ueda cautioned that volatility in super-long Japanese government bond yields could affect short-term rates and the broader economy. Last week, yields on super-long JGBs hit record highs amid a global bond sell-off sparked by concerns over worsening fiscal conditions in advanced economies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.45 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.97(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.30(Lower BB)

Equities Recap

Europe's main stock index was little changed on Wednesday, as investors weighed ongoing trade negotiations with the United States and digested a series of regional economic data releases.

At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.06 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.60 percent, France’s CAC  was down by 0.13percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold edged higher on Wednesday as investors took advantage of a dip following the previous session’s decline, while attention turned to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and key economic data for clues on the future path of U.S. interest rates.

Spot gold was up 0.6% to $3,319.61 an ounce, as of 1029 GMT. Bullion fell below the $3,300 level and hit a low of $3,285.19 in the previous session.U.S. gold futures rose 0.6% to $3,318.60.

Oil prices ticked higher on Wednesday, supported by the U.S. decision to bar Chevron from exporting crude from Venezuela and ongoing production shut-ins in Canada. Meanwhile, markets remained focused on a potential output increase from OPEC+.

Brent crude futures rose 54 cents, or 0.8%, to $64.63 a barrel by 1050 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 64 cents, or 0.9%, to stand at $61.45 a barrel.