Market Roundup
• German Business Expectations (Jun)84.1,85.0 forecast,83.9 previous
• German Current Assessment (Jun) 87.0, 86.0 forecast, 86.1 previous
• German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jun) 85.6, 85.6 forecast,85.0 previous
• US Current Account (Q1) -226.8B, -212.0B forecast, -221.1B previous
• US Building Permits (May)1.410M, 1.413M forecast, 1.423M previous
• Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (May) 1.1%, 4.2% previous
• US Building Permits (MoM) (May) -0.9%, -0.7% forecast, 4.4% previous
• US New Home Sales (May) 580K, 638K forecast, 626K previous
• US New Home Sales (MoM) (May) -7.3%, -5.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•18:00 US 5-Year Note Auction 4.182% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•17:30 UK BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
•19:00 US Fed Governor Cook Speaks
•21:00 US Fed Bank Stress Test Results
•Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 10:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Wednesday as investors sought shelter from a tech stock selloff and prepared for rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.Stock market volatility continued after a broad selloff of technology and semiconductor sectors dragged global shares lower, sparking safe-haven demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, expectations of a U.S. rate hike continued to build with Fed officials sounding increasingly hawkish as the economy remains strong. Markets are pricing in a 36% chance of a hike at the July meeting, up from 8.5% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch. For September, the chance of a rate rise has risen above 70% from 29.1%.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1487(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1577(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1351(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1329(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Wednesday as dollar firmed as markets brace for anticipated rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year.Market expectations of a rate hike have increased since the Fed's policy announcement last week, with recent comments from some officials signaling a focus on inflation as the overall economy appears to be on stable footing. Continued uncertainty around the tentative peace deal between the U.S. and Iran also helped buoy the dollar, although oil prices fell to their lowest level since before the war began on signs more oil tankers were poised to move out of the Strait of Hormuz. . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3326(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3373(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3163(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3135(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar eased on Wednesday as investors digested a mixed Australian inflation report. Australian consumer prices fell in May due to lower fuel and travel costs, but stronger-than-expected core inflation kept the possibility of another RBA rate hike alive. Australian CPI fell 0.7% in May from April, while annual inflation slowed to 4.0% from 4.2%, according to ABS data. Both readings came in below forecasts for a 0.4% monthly decline and 4.3% annual inflation. The trimmed mean measure of core inflation increased by 0.4% in the month, above forecasts of 0.3%, pushing the annual pace up to 3.6%.The Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked rates three times this year in an effort to get core inflation back into its target band of 2% to 3%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7080(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7118(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6940(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6902(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against yen on Wednesday as the yen weakened despite repeated verbal intervention from officials offering little support to the currency. Japanese officials’ verbal warnings have failed to ease pressure on the yen, with authorities now planning to improve management of their $1.3 trillion FX reserves to support potential intervention. Markets are increasingly skeptical about Tokyo’s ability to carry out further currency intervention after a record-sized operation nearly two months ago significantly depleted foreign exchange reserves. Some Bank of Japan board members backed additional rate hikes to bring policy closer to neutral levels, according to a summary of opinions from the June policy meeting released Wednesday.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 161.62(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 162.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 161.21(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 160.13(SAM 20).
Equities Recap
European shares were largely unchanged on Wednesday as investors weighed the latest developments surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.13 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.97 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.40 percent.
Commodities Recap
Spot gold prices fell below the key psychological level of $4,000 per ounce on Wednesday for the first time since November 2025, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations
Spot gold, which scaled a record peak of $5,594.82 in late January, has since shed more than $1,500 an ounce.
Brent crude prices fell more than $3 on Wednesday to their lowest level since before the start of the Iran waras signs emerged that more oil tankers are set to move out of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures were down $3.32 or 4.3%, at $73.76 a barrel by 1327 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped by $3.02, or 4.13%, to $70.19.
