Market Roundup
• German Trade Balance (Feb): 19.8B, 18.1B forecast, 20.3B previous
• German Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb): 0.00%, previous -0.65%
• German Imports (MoM) (Feb): 4.7%, forecast 4.0%, previous -5.1%
• German Exports (MoM) (Feb): 3.6%, forecast 1.0%, previous -1.5%
•US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Feb): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Feb): 3.0%, 3.0% forecast, 3.1% previous
•US GDP QoQ (Q4): 0.5%, 0.7% forecast, 4.4% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims: 219K, 210K forecast, 203K previous
•US PCE Price Index MoM (Feb): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Personal Spending MoM (Feb): 0.5%, 0.6% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US PCE Price Index YoY (Feb): 2.8%, 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
•US GDP Price Index QoQ (Q4): 3.7%, 3.8% forecast, 3.7% previous
•US Core PCE Prices (Q4): 2.7%, 2.7% forecast, 2.9% previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,794K, 1,840K forecast, 1,832K previous
•US Corporate Profits QoQ (Q4): 5.7%, –, 4.7% previous
•US Personal Income MoM (Feb): -0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Real Personal Consumption MoM (Feb): 0.1%, –, 0.0% previous
•US Real Consumer Spending (Q4): 1.9%, 2.0% forecast, 3.5% previous
•US PCE Prices (Q4): 2.9%, 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous
•US GDP Sales (Q4): 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 4.5% previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 209.5K, 208.0K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1): 1.3% forecast, 1.3% previous
• 16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.620% previous
• 16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction: 3.620% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the dollar on Thursday as investors cautiously evaluated whether a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran would hold. The five-week conflict has shaken investor confidence, triggering the largest disruption to global oil and gas supplies on record. Analysts say the uneasy truce has given Iran greater leverage over shipping through the strategically vital strait, after President Donald Trump stepped back from threats to target Iran’s civilian infrastructure. Data showed U.S. inflation increased as expected in February and likely rose further in March amid the Iran war, while economic growth slowed more than previously estimated in the fourth quarter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1677(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1717(April 8thhigh).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1565(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1546(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: The pound inched higher on the dollar on Thursday and held onto the bulk of U.S.-Iran ceasefire-inspired gains the previous session, though with that deal looking fragile it failed to climb any further. Israel bombed more targets in Lebanon on Thursday, and there was no sign Iran had lifted its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused the worst disruption to global energy supplies in history.Tehran said there would be no deal as long as Israel was striking Lebanon. Sterling was last up 0.1% on the dollar at $1.3407, well up from below $1.33 before the deal was announced but off its Wednesday high of $1.348, reflecting traders' nervousness about how sustainable the ceasefire will be.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3421(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.35465(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3315(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3180(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Thursday as doubts over a fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran kept investors cautious .The viability of the ceasefire was in question as Israel continued to attack Lebanon on Thursday.Investors exercised caution as energy-dependent economies stand exposed to oil price volatility, which threatens to stoke inflation and strain economic growth. Meanwhile, data showed U.S. inflation increased as expected in February and likely rose further in March amid the Iran war, while economic growth slowed more than previously estimated in the fourth quarter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7084 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7137(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7034(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6976(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rose higher on Thursday as yen gave back some of the previous day’s gains as investors assessed the stability of a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Analysts say the truce has boosted Iran’s influence over shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, following President Donald Trump’s decision to step back from threats against Iran’s civilian infrastructure. The five-week conflict has rattled investor confidence, causing the largest disruption to global oil and gas supplies on record. Oil prices gained after a steep drop in the previous session, as few signs of traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz heightened uncertainty. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude hovered near $100 a barrel. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.97(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.04(Lower BB) a break below could take the pair towards 157.68(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell after strongest rally in more than four years as investors are concerned about the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire and its impact on oil prices and global inflation.
At GMT (13:40) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.41 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.33 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.88 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices climbed more than 3% on Thursday as uncertainty over a fragile two-week Middle East ceasefire fueled concerns that energy flows through the critical Strait of Hormuz could remain constrained, with shippers reluctant to resume transit..
Brent crude futures were up $3.41, or 3.6%, at $98.16 a barrel at 1244 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $4.74, or 5%, to $99.15 a barrel.
Gold prices firmed on Thursday as a weaker U.S. dollar lent support, while investors assessed the durability of a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran and awaited U.S. Consumer Price Index data.
Spot gold was up 0.9% at $4,755.99 per ounce, at 9:16 a.m. ET (1316 GMT) after hitting a near three-week high in the previous session.
