Market Roundup
•UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May) 0.1%, -0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (May) 0.7%, 0.5% forecast, 0.8% previous
•UK Trade Balance (May) -18.66B, -23.10B forecast, -24.58B previous
•UK Trade Balance Non-EU (May) -7.14B, -12.21B previous
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) (May) -0.5%, -0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK Construction Output (YoY) (May) -1.8%, -1.1% forecast, -1.6% previous
•UK Construction Output (MoM) (May) -0.8%, -0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (May) 1.3%, 1.4% forecast, 1.1% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (May) 2.3%, 1.9% forecast, 1.0% previous
•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (May) 1.0%, 1.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•UK Index of Services 0.7%, 0.6% forecast, 0.9% previous
•Italy HICP (YoY) (Jun) 3.0%, 3.1% forecast, 3.2% previous
•Italy CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
•Italy CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jun) 2.9%, 3.0% previous
•Italy CPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.0%, 3.0% forecast, 3.2% previous
•Italy HICP (MoM) (Jun) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•Canada Housing Starts (Jun) 239.0K, 256.0K forecast, 253.1K previous
•US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 1.0% previous
•US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -0.2%, 0.0% forecast, 1.0% previous
•US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) 41.4, 12.7 forecast, 10.3 previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 208K, 216K forecast, 216K previous
•US Philly Fed Employment (Jul) 10.0, 7.9 previous
•US Retail Control (MoM) (Jun) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.8% previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,805K, 1,820K forecast, 1,821K previous
•US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Jul) 34.4, 50.2 previous
•US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Jun) 0.4%, 0.8% previous
•US Philly Fed New Orders (Jul) 37.0, 27.3 previous
•US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jul) 53.90, 53.20 previous
•US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Jul) 30.10, 41.20 previous
•US Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) 6.72%, 7.33% previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 214.25K, 219.00K previous
•US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) -5.4%, -0.5% forecast, 3.5% previous
•US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Business Inventories (MoM) (May) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Pending Home Sales Index (Jun) 72.5, 76.6 previous
•US NAHB Housing Market Index (Jul) 34, 35 forecast, 36 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 1.3% forecast, 1.3% previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction 3.630% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction 3.635% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Thursday as renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran kept investors cautious. The U.S. struck Iran's coastal defence and missile installations on Wednesday after reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports, while Tehran threatened to curb additional regional energy exports, describing the conflict as an "existential war" with Washington.Brent crude climbed above $85 a barrel on concerns that the escalating Middle East conflict could disrupt oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, reviving worries about inflation. Meanwhile, European Central Bank will hold interest rates on July 23 but will hike for the second time this year in September as a renewed energy price surge raises the risk of more intense inflation pressures, according of economists .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1437(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1324(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling hovered near its highest level in more than two months against the dollar as concerns over Britain's fiscal outlook faded. Andy Burnham is expected to appoint interior minister Shabana Mahmood as finance minister when he becomes Britain's prime minister next week, rather than the more left-leaning energy minister, Ed Miliband, easing concerns about fiscal discipline. Britain's economy eked out minimal growth in May as the services industry expanded but other sectors shrank, suggesting fragile confidence among businesses.Andy Burnham is expected to be formally sworn in as prime minister on July 20.Britain will need extra tax rises or spending cuts to prevent government debt spiralling higher from current levels, the Office for Budget Responsibility said last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3444(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Thursday as concerns over the escalating Middle East conflict. The U.S. launched fresh strikes against Iran's coastal military infrastructure and reimposed a naval blockade of its ports.Rising geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices higher, fueling renewed inflation concerns.Meanwhile, inflation expectations moderated for the third month in a row, easing to 4.7% in July 2026 from 5.5% in June, their lowest level in six months.Markets currently price only a 20% chance of a rate hike in August and around 60% odds by December.Markets are looking to upcoming employment and inflation reports for further guidance on the policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6952 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6875(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6811(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen on Thursday as heightening inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of elevated U.S. interest rates.Higher oil prices stoke inflation concerns, raising expectations of elevated interest rates .Oil prices rose over 1% as concerns over Middle East energy supplies increased after Iran asked Yemen's Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the U.S. strikes Iranian power infrastructure.Traders are now pricing in about a 56% chance that the Federal Reserve will hike rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed his commitment to bringing inflation back to target.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 162.73(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 159.58(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks edged lower on Thursday as investors digested a wave of corporate earnings, while escalating Middle East tensions renewed concerns over energy supply disruptions and inflation.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.87 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell 2% on Thursday, as escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields higher, heightening inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of elevated U.S. interest rates.
Spot gold was down 1.5% at $4,001.17 per ounce by 0926 a.m. EDT (1326) GMT, after falling as much as 2% earlier. U.S. gold futures dropped 1.1% to $4,005.20.
Oil prices rose over 1% on Thursday as escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities heightened supply concerns after Tehran urged Yemen's Houthis to prepare to disrupt the Red Sea oil route.
Brent crude futures were up 93 cents, or 1.09%, to $85.88 a barrel at 1420 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 89 cents, or 1.12%, to $80.49 a barrel.
