Market Roundup
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Feb) 5.9% ,6.0% forecast ,5.8% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Feb) 5.6% , 5.7% forecast 5.6% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Mar) 18.7K, 30.3K forecast 16.5K previous
•UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Feb) 206K, 144K previous
•UK Unemployment Rate (Feb) 4.4% ,4.4% forecast,4.4% previous
•French CPI NSA (YoY) (Mar) 0.8%, 0.8% previous
• French CPI NSA (MoM) (Mar) 0.2, 0.2% previous
• French CPI (YoY) (Mar) 0.8% 0.8% forecast 0.8% previous
• French CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast ,0.0% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Mar) 0.2% 0.2% forecast 0.1% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Mar) 0.9%, 0.9% forecast,0.9% previous
•EU Inflation (YoY) (Mar) 0.7% , 0.7% previous
•German ZEW Current Conditions (Apr) -81.2 , -86.0 forecast, -87.6 previous
•German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr) -14.0 , 10.6 forecast,51.6 previous
•EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) 1.1%,0.1% forecast,0.6% previous
•EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) 1.2%, -0.8% forecast,-0.5% previous
•EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr) -18.5 ,13.2 forecast, 39.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Export Price Index (MoM) (Mar) 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 2.1% previous
•12:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 2.0% previous
•12:30 US Import Price Index (MoM) (Mar) 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr) -12.80 -20.00 previous
•12:30 Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.5% , 2.5% previous
•12:30 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.7% previous
•12:30 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.7% previous
•12:30 Canada CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.7% forecast, 1.1% previous
•12:30 Canada CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.6% forecast, 2.6% previous
•12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Feb) -0.3% 1.7% previous
•12:30 Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
•12:30 Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Mar) 3.0% forecast, 2.9% previous
•12:55 USD Redbook (YoY) 7.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And other Releases(GMT)
•15:35 US FOMC Members Barkin Speaks
•16:00 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro hovered near a three-year higher on Tuesday as investors remained cautious about U.S. assets amid the ongoing shifts in President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Market attention remained focused on the fluctuating tariff headlines, with the U.S. exempting smartphones and electronics from China tariffs over the weekend, offering temporary relief. However, Trump's comments indicated that this respite might be brief.Trump's back-and-forth on tariffs has created confusion, heightening uncertainty for investors and policymakers globally. While market sentiment was calmer on Tuesday, analysts expect any relief for the dollar to be short-lived given the ongoing unpredictability of Trump's tariff decisions. Investors now await the European Central Bank's policy meeting on Thursday, with markets widely anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1388(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1520(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1388(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1141(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as risk sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted he might grant exemptions on auto-related tariffs.Overnight, Trump indicated he was considering modifying the 25% tariffs on foreign auto and auto parts imports.Investors welcomed temporary tariff exemptions for certain sectors, hoping that punitive levies could be reduced after recent market volatility.On the macro front, data on Tuesday showed Britain's labour market showed signs of weakening in the run-up to this month's increase in a tax on employers.At GMT 11:11, the British pound was trading higher 0.32% at 1.3023 against US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3221(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3257(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3163(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3095(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Tuesday, buoyed by improved risk sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled potential exemptions from planned auto tariffs. Overnight, Trump suggested he might adjust the 25% tariffs on foreign auto and auto parts imports. Earlier, the White House exempted certain electronic items from high tariffs on Chinese imports but later initiated an investigation into semiconductor imports. The Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes from the April meeting, released on Tuesday, highlighted concerns over tariffs and suggested the possibility of further easing in May.At GMT 12:20, the Australian dollar was trading higher 0.68% at $0.6368 against US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6379(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6405(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6319(38.2%fib) , a break below could take the pair towards 0.6277(April 11th ow).
USD/JPY: The dollar inched higher against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as investors remained cautious amid the ongoing uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies. Japan, a long-standing U.S. ally, faces a 24% tariff on its exports to the U.S., though most of these duties have been paused for 90 days under Trump's "reciprocal" tariff strategy. However, a 10% universal tariff and a 25% duty on automobiles remain in place, with cars making up around 28% of Japan's exports to its largest trade partner.As Japan prepares for trade negotiations with the U.S. this week, currency policy is expected to be a central issue. Some Japanese officials anticipate U.S. pressure on Tokyo to support the yen. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stressed that both countries agree markets should set exchange rates and warned that excessive, volatile currency movements could harm economic and financial stability. Immediate resistance can be seen at 143.59 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.00(Psychological level) On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.63 (23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 142.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Tuesday as investors assessed the fluctuating U.S. tariff plans, while shares of LVMH fell following disappointing first-quarter revenue, highlighting the negative impact of the trade war on the world's largest luxury group.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 3.87 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 3.81 percent, France’s CAC was down by 3.84 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday after the International Energy Agency joined OPEC in cutting its oil demand forecast, although declines were capped by U.S. President Donald Trump's indication of potential new tariff exemptions.
Brent crude futures were down 50 cents, or 0.8%, at $64.38 per barrel by 1005 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also dipped 50 cents, or 0.8%, to $61.03 a barrel.
Gold prices climbed on Tuesday as investors sought refuge in the safe-haven asset, driven by uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies, which could intensify the trade war and hinder global economic growth.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,219.99 an ounce at 1135 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $3,245.42 on Monday.
