Europe Roundup: Sterling slides ahead of BoE decision , European shares gain, Gold prices rise Oil prices stabilise after Golan Heights attack-July 29th,2024

Market Roundup

•Finnish Jul Consumer Confidence -7.2  ,-7.6 previous

•Finnish Jul Industrial Confidence  -12,   -15 previous

• Sweden GDP (QoQ) (Q2) -0.8%, 0.7% previous

• Sweden GDP (YoY) (Q2)0.0%,0.7% previous

•UK Jul CBI Distributive Trades Survey -43,  -20 forecast,-24 previous

•Belgian GDP (QoQ) (Q2)0.2,  0.3% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•13:00   French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.341% previous

•13:00   French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.540% previous

•13:00     French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.576% previous

•13:00   US Jun Dallas Fed PCE  1.40% previous

•14:30   US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index -15.1 previous

•15:30   US  3-Month Bill Auction 5.190% previous

•15:30   US  6-Month Bill Auction 4.990% previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)

•No Events Ahead

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Monday as investors braced for Federal Reserve's policy meeting due later this week . The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at a two-day policy meeting this week but open the door to interest rate cuts as soon as September by acknowledging inflation has edged nearer to the U.S. central bank's 2% target. Policymakers in advance of the July 30-31 meeting were reluctant to commit to the timing of a first rate cut, but audibly cheered recent data showing price pressures were easing broadly, with headline inflation moving closer to the Fed's target and evidence from job, housing and other markets suggesting that trend would continue. The euro eased 0.1% to $1.084 , having found support around $1.0825 last week.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0868(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0909 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0815(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0790(61.8%fib).

GBP/USD:The pound fell to its lowest level in two weeks on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Bank of England's interest rate decision on Thursday and a key speech by British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves later in the day. Traders increased their wagers on BoE rate cuts and were pricing in an almost 60% chance of a reduction on Thursday, up from just over 50% late on Friday, according to derivative market pricing.The shift in rate expectations pulled British bond yields lower, weighing on the pound.Sterling was last down 0.25% at $1.2834 after falling to $1.2807 earlier in the session, the lowest since July 10. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2973(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2800(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2714(61.8%fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened   against the Swiss franc on Monday  as focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting due later this week. The U.S. central bank's Federal Open Market Committee meets on July 30-31 and is expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. However, softer U.S. jobs data in June, cooling inflation and comments from top Fed officials have prompted the rate futures market to fully price in a 25 basis-point cut in September. Also due this week are the U.S. jobs report for July, closely watched surveys on U.S. and global manufacturing, and euro zone gross domestic product and inflation data  . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8886(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8938(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8779(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8700(Psychological level).

USD/JPY: The dollar gained ground against Japanese on Monday as head of three central bank meetings, which could signal interest rate cuts in the United States and the UK, while Japan might increase borrowing costs in a shift towards "normality. Rising speculation for a BOJ interest rate hike this week has helped buoy the yen, with the Fed also widely expected to set the stage for a September rate cut. Data released on Friday showed investors have sharply cut back on their bets against the yen , which was trading at a 38-year low at the start of the month.The dollar index , which measures the currency against the yen and five other major peers, rose 0.13% to 104.51. Strong resistance can be seen at 154.83(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.30(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.09(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 152.48 (Lower BB).

Equities Recap

European shares started the week strong, lifted by global oil gains amid Middle East conflict fears and a slew of upbeat earnings, though a drop in Reckitt tempered the rally.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.74 percent, Germany's Dax was last up  by 0.12 percent, France’s CAC was last down  by 0.54 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices firmed on Monday amid expectations of a U.S. rate cut in September and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting due later this week.

 Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,397.65 per ounce, as of 0025 GMT. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 climbed 0.7% to $2,396.70.

Oil prices were stable on Monday as fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East after a rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights balanced demand concerns to put a floor under last week's price losses.

Brent crude futures lost 33 cents, or 0.41%, to $80.80 a barrel at 1214 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by 29 cents, or 0.38%, to $76.87.