Oil Prices Rise Over 1% on Positive U.S. Economic Data and Geopolitical Tensions 
Market Roundup
•Italian Jun CPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
•Italian Jun HICP (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•German Jul ZEW Economic Sentiment 41, 41.2 forecast,47.5 previous
•German Jul ZEW Economic Sentiment 43.7, 48.1 forecast,51.3 previous
•Italian May Trade Balance 6.430B, 3.550B forecast,4.807B previous
•German Jul ZEW Current Conditions -68.9,-74.3 forecast,-73.8 previous
•EU May Trade Balance 13.9B, 18.0B forecast,15.0B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Jun Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Jun Import Price Index (YoY) 1.1% previous
•12:30 US Jun Export Price Index (YoY) 0.6% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Core CPI (YoY) 1.8% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Core CPI (MoM) 0.6% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Trimmed CPI (YoY) 2.8% forecast,2.9% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Median CPI (YoY) 2.7% forecast,2.8% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Common CPI (YoY) 2.4% forecast,2.4% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun CPI (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.6% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Retail Control (MoM) 0.4% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Retail Sales (YoY) 2.27% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3% forecast,0.1% previous
•12:30 US Jun Import Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast,-0.4% previous
•12:30 US Jun Export Price Index (MoM)-0.6% previous
•14:00 US May Business Inventories (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
•14:00 US May Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.0% forecast,0.3% previous
•15:00 GlobalDairyTrade Price Index -6.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro steadied on Tuesday as investors awaited this week’s European Central Bank meeting for clues on ECB policy outlook. The European Central Bank will hold its policy meeting later this week, where it is widely expected to hold interest rates. Investors will however focus on remarks from policymakers to ascertain the timing of future rate cuts. On the data front, German investor morale deteriorated more than expected in July, registering its first fall in a year and suggesting the recovery in the euro zone's largest economy will be bumpy.The economic sentiment index fell to 41.8 points from 47.5 points in June, the ZEW economic research institute said on Tuesday. Analysts polled had forecast a July reading of 42.3. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0902(23.6%fib).), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0861(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0825(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held steady on Tuesday just shy of a one year high on the dollar hit the previous day, as traders caught their breath ahead of a raft of major political and economic data due later in the week.British inflation data for June is due Wednesday, and will guide expectations of whether the Bank of England will cut rates at its August meeting, or hold off until later in the year. Investors were nervous about placing overly large bets ahead of that data and sterling was last sitting steady against the dollar at $1.2969 , just off the previous day's one-year top of $1.2995.Reasonably upbeat economic British data and relatively hawkish policy makers have been supporting the pound, while signs of slowing inflation in the U.S. brings down the dollar, and political uncertainty in France has weighed on the euro. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2989(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2905(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2871(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar edged lower against the Swiss franc on Tuesday investors awaited more U.S. economic data for further monetary policy cues. Powell said on Monday the three U.S. inflation readings over the second quarter of this year "add somewhat to confidence" that the pace of price increases is returning to the Fed's target in a sustainable fashion. Markets now anticipate 68 bps of easing this year, with a rate cut in September fully priced in, the CME FedWatch tool showed.U.S. retail sales for June due later in the day could further guide expectations for the Fed. They are expected to show a decline of 0.3% month-on-month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8967(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9016(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8929(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8886(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against Japanese on Tuesday but gains were limited as traders remained wary of further intervention by Tokyo to prop up their currency after data showed they likely stepped into markets late last week. Bank of Japan data released on Tuesday suggested Tokyo may have spent 2.14 trillion yen ($13.5 billion) by stepping into the money market on Friday.Combined with the estimated amount spent a day earlier, Japan is likely to have bought nearly 6 trillion yen via intervention last week.Japanese authorities have made it standard practice to not confirm whether they have intervened, but Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Japan stands ready to take all possible steps to counter excessively volatile currency moves. Strong resistance can be seen at 158.77(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.23(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.63 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 156.42 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Tuesday following weakness in metal miners and dour earnings from luxury retailer Hugo Boss, while markets also assessed the chances of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential race.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.48 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.56 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.74 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Tuesday as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell bolstered the case for a September rate cut, while investors awaited more U.S. economic data for further monetary policy cues.
Spot gold gained 0.8% to $2,440.29 per ounce by 1207 GMT. The bullion hovers only slightly below the record high of $2,449.89 hit on May 20.
Oil prices declined more than 1% on Tuesday on worries of a slowing Chinese economy crimping demand and despite a growing consensus the U.S. Federal Reserve could begin cutting its key interest rate as soon as September.
Brent futures were down $1.47, or 1.73%, to $83.38 a barrel by 1202 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.62, or 1.98%, to $80.29.
