Market Roundup
•French Jun HICP (MoM) 0.2%,0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•French CPI NSA MoM Jun: 0.10%, 0.00% previous
•French CPI NSA YoY Jun 2.20%, 2.30% previous
•French HICP MoM Jun 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•French CPI MoM Jun0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•French CPI YoY Jun: 2.2%, 2.1% forecast, 2.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Jun Core PPI (YoY) 2.5% forecast, 2.3% previous
•12:30 US Jun Core PPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•12:30 US Jun PPI (MoM) 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
•12:30 Canada May Building Permits (MoM) -5.0% forecast, 20.5% previous
•12:30 US Jun PPI (YoY) 2.3%forecast, 2.2% previous
•12:30 US Jun PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.0% previous
•12:30 US Jun PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 3.2% previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0% previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0% previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Consumer Expectations 69.8 forecast, 69.6previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Consumer Sentiment 68.5 forecast, 68.2 previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Current Conditions 66.3 forecast, previous 65.9 previous
•17:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 479 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 585 previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose higher on Friday as dollar dipped after U.S. economy showed signs of fatigue. Consumer prices in France rose 2.5% year-on-year in June, confirming its preliminary reading, while German wholesale prices fell by 0.6% in June, compared with the same month last year.U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly fell and the annual increase was the smallest in a year, reinforcing views that the disinflation trend was back on track and drawing the Fed another step closer to cutting rates.Investors' focus will now shift to producer prices data at 08:30 a.m. ET (1230 GMT) for further confirmation of inflation easing in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0902(23.6%fib).), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0861(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0825(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound coursed towards its best two-week performance against the dollar in eight months on Friday, after data pointed to an improvement in UK growth, while the U.S. economy shows signs of fatigue.Sterling has gained 2.4% against the dollar in the last two weeks, its biggest two-weekly rise since November last year. It was last up 0.3% at $1.2949, making it one of the best performing major currencies of the day.Data on Thursday showed the UK economy grew more quickly than expected in May, which prompted traders to chop back their bets on an August rate cut from the Bank of England.BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill gave the pound an extra boost this week by saying services inflation and wage growth showed uncomfortable strength despite headline inflation falling to the BoE's 2% target in May, and it was unlikely that June inflation figures due next week would change the big picture. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2958(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2905(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2871(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar edged higher against the Swiss franc on Friday after softer-than-expected inflation data boosted bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September.Investor confidence was bolstered after data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer prices fell in June, stoking speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon.The market, however, is still awaiting clearer signs of action. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the recent improving trend in price pressures, he told lawmakers that more data was needed to strengthen the case for rate cuts. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.48% to 104.47. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9000(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9052(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8949(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8915(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped on Friday as the Japanese yen surged , raising questions about whether Japan intervened to boost its currency. Japan's top currency diplomat said on Friday authorities would take action as needed in the foreign exchange market, resuming his jawboning after the yen's spike overnight raised market speculation about currency intervention.Bank of Japan (BOJ) data released later on Friday suggested Japan may have spent up to 3.57 trillion yen ($22.4 billion) intervening in the foreign exchange market to prop up the sagging currency.Masato Kanda, who is vice finance minister for international affairs, declined to comment on whether authorities had intervened in the currency market to prop up the yen, but told reporters recent yen moves were out of line with fundamentals. Strong resistance can be seen at 158.91(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.11(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 15790 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 157.03(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares advanced on Friday and were set for a second consecutive weekly gains on upbeat earnings updates, while U.S. inflation data raised hopes of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve..
At (GMT 12:25 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.19 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.28percent, France’s CAC was by up 0.64 percent.
Commodities Recap
Spot gold , added 1.82% to $2,414.27 an ounce. U.S. gold futures gained 1.77% to $2,414.10 an ounce as the precious metal was bolstered by the prospect of rate cuts.
Oil prices rose on Friday amid signs of easing inflationary pressures in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, though Brent crude was still set for a weekly decline.
Brent crude futures were up 52 cents, or 0.6%, to $85.92 a barrel at 1051 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were 73 cents, or 0.9%, higher at $83.35 a barrel. Both contracts gained in the prior two sessions.
