Market Roundup
•EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Feb) -12.7,-16.4 forecast, -17.7 previous
•Greek Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) 5.8%, 4.9% previous
•Portuguese Trade Balance (Dec) -7.98B , -7.43B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 French 12-Months BTF Auction 2.218% previous
•14:00 French 3-Months BTF Auction 2.496% previous
•14:00 French 6-Months BTF Auction 2.395% previous
•15:00 CB Employment Trends Index (Jan) 109.70 previous
•16:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jan) 3.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Monday after President Trump’s new tariff plans raised concerns of a global trade war. Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, adding to existing duties in a major escalation of his trade policy. This came shortly after German Chancellor Scholz stated the EU would respond within an hour if tariffs were imposed on European goods, highlighting the potential for an escalating trade conflict. Investors reacted by pushing the dollar slightly higher, with the index tracking the U.S. currency up just over 0.1% from Friday's close, at 108.17. The euro was 0.03% lower at $1.0321, . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0277(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0328(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0219(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.093(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound eased on Monday as traders awaited a speech by hawk-turned-dove Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann and business activity data. Bank of England policymaker and monetary policy committee member Catherine Mann, known as the most hawkish voice on the committee, is set to deliver a speech at 17:30 GMT. Her insights come just after the central bank's decision last week to trim interest rates by 25 basis points.Meanwhile, all eyes will also be on BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, who is slated to speak on Tuesday. British investors are awaiting a series of data releases this week, including GDP estimates for December, preliminary Q4 figures, and industrial and manufacturing output for December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2442(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2553(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2316(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2168(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: Australian dollar rebounded from initial decline on Monday as investors reacted to Trump’s tariff comments on steel and aluminum. The announcement heightened concerns over trade tensions, which negatively impacted risk sentiment and strengthened the U.S. dollar. Australia is not a major exporter of steel and aluminium to the U.S., but its top trading partner China will be subject to these new tariffs. Beijing's retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. goods came into effect on Monday with no signs of Trump speaking to Chinese President Xi Jinping.At GMT 13:12, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.07% to $0.6276 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6321(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6381(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6249(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6183(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned more tariffs were imminent including on steel and aluminium, an inflationary move that could limit the scope for rate cuts. Tariffs could also put upward pressure on U.S. inflation and further limit room for the Federal Reserve to ease policy. Markets had already scaled back expected rate cuts this year to just 36 basis points, from around 42 basis points, following an upbeat payrolls report on Friday.Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to appear before the House of Representatives on Tuesday and Wednesday and the impact of tariffs on policy is sure to be a hot-button issue.Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.19 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.69(38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.87(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares ticked higher on Monday, boosted by energy and real estate stocks, while markets assessed the potential impact of Trump’s tariff warning on steel and aluminium imports.
At GMT (13:11) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.68 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.57 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.22 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices edged up on Monday as investors considered U.S. President Trump's new tariff threat on all steel and aluminum imports, which could impact global economic growth and energy demand.
Brent crude rose 0.7% to $75.17 per barrel, and U.S. WTI increased 0.6% to $71.45 per barrel by 0444 GMT.
Gold prices surged over 1% on Monday to a record high, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid fears of a global trade war following U.S. President Trump's new tariff plans.
Spot gold was up 1.5% to $2,903.19 per ounce, as of 1153 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,905.98 earlier in the session - its seventh record this year.U.S. gold futures rose 1.5% to $2,929.70.
