Bank of Japan's Ueda Flags Low Real Interest Rates as Key Factor in Rate Hike Timing 
Bank of Korea Governor Nominee Warns of Action if Korean Won Weakens Further 
Japan Inflation Expectations Rise as BOJ Rate Hike Timing Faces Uncertainty 
RBI Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Middle East Tensions and Global Uncertainty 
ECB Rate Outlook: Ceasefire Eases Pressure but Hikes Still Expected in 2026 
Paraguay Holds Interest Rate at 5.5% as Inflation Remains Stable Amid Global Uncertainty 
Bank of America Maintains Forecast for Two Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 Despite Inflation Risks 
Bank of England Set to Hold Interest Rates as Inflation Risks and Iran War Impact Loom 
Bank of Japan Warns of Regional Economic Risks Amid Middle East Conflict and Rising Oil Prices 
Market is now more hawkish than last time we checked after FED hike in December and speech from Janet Yellen. Market seems to be expecting FED to be more aggressive in 2016.
Let's look at the market pricing of hikes over next few meetings.
Current Federal funds target range is at 0.25 - 0.5%.
- January, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 89% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5% and 11% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%.
- March, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 44% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 50% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75% and 5% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1%
- April, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 38% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 49% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 12% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1% and 1% probability that rates will be at 1-1.25%.
- June, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 22% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 45% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 27% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1% and 5% probability that rates will be at 1-1.25%.
- July, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 19% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 41% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 30% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1%, 9% probability that rates will be at 1-1.25% and 1% probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.5%.
As of now, Market is predicating with more than 50% probability of next hike to be in March, 2016. In December, post FOMC market expectation for a hike was in April.
