FED rate hike: arguments against –weak EM/China

FOMC will conclude its two day monetary policy meeting today and will announce the decision at 18:00 GMT, which will follow press conference from FED chair Janet Yellen at 18:30 GMT.

It has become extremely difficult to predict, what FED might do today as arguments are quite strong on either of the side.

Emerging markets turmoil is surely be part of discussion.

Key arguments -

• Though some of the domestic factors encouraging FED to hike rates, international economic condition especially across emerging markets and China is giving red signal.
  
  
• China is rapidly rising concern for global markets and FED need to assess how fast things are likely to deteriorate in China. Argument is that FED should wait and watch financial conditions and deterioration in China before moving ahead. A rate hike from FED might tighten monetary conditions further across emerging markets and help China decelerate faster.
  
• Argument is that if China slows down, it would export its deflation further across world and slide in commodities will add on to that.
  
  
• Argument is that emerging market crisis might exacerbate with sharp deceleration in China. Fund managers are now expecting China to fall into recession in 2016.
  
  
• Financial market volatility in August has shown the impact China can have over Global markets.