FX – USD-LKR raised and lower USD-BDT forecasts

Standard Chartered notes:

• We maintain our bearish view on the Sri Lankan rupee (LKR) but raise our USD-LKR forecasts given recent market moves. 
  
  
• We see three key drivers of USD-LKR strength: (1) trade-balance deterioration over the past year, (2) continued broad US dollar strength and (3) investor uncertainty weighing on inflows. In contrast, we adjust our USD-BDT forecasts slightly lower. 
  
  
• We still expect the Bangladesh taka (BDT) to weaken, but gradually. Weak export growth is likely to weigh on the BDT to some degree. 

However, Bangladesh remittances have remained healthy in recent months and the central bank has increased its FX reserves. Bangladesh reported a net balance of payment (BoP) surplus of USD 2.9bn from June 2014 to March 2015.