BOJ Governor Ueda Meets Key Ministers as Markets Eye Policy Shifts Under New Leadership 
Singapore Maintains Steady Monetary Outlook as Positive Output Gap Persists into 2025 
RBNZ Cuts Interest Rates Again as Inflation Cools and Recovery Remains Fragile 
Fed Meeting Sparks Division as Markets Brace for Possible Rate Cut 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
Kazakhstan Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 18% as Inflation Pressures Persist 
FOMC increased interest rates in March and June and increased its forecast from three rate hikes in 2018 to four rate hikes. June decision was unanimous. Current Federal funds rate - 175-200 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 16th July)
- August 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 97.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 2.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- September 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 13.3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 84.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 2.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- November 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 12.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 82.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 4.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 4.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 39.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 52.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 2.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- January 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 4.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 36.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 51.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 0.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have tightened for both near and far months.
- The market is pricing the third hike for 2018 in September and pricing it with 86.8 percent probability compared to 80.7 percent a week ago.
- The market is pricing the fourth hike in December with 55.6 percent probability instead of 53.5 percent probability just a week ago.
- The market has started pricing the fourth rate hike with more than 50 percent probability again since last week.
