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FOMC increased interest rates in March and June and increased its forecast from three rate hikes in 2018 to four rate hikes. June decision was unanimous. Current Federal funds rate - 175-200 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 13th August)
- September 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 6.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 93.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- November 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 6.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 93.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 2.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 2.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 36.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 61.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- January 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 2.3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 37.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 57.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 2.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- March 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 1.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 21.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 48.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 27.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 1.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 1.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 19.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 46.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 29.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 3.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 0.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 12.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 35.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 35.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, 13.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent, 1.4 percent probability that rates will be at 3.00-3.25 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have eased for far months.
- The market is pricing the third hike for 2018 in September and pricing it with 93.6 percent probability compared to 97.6 percent a week ago.
- The market is pricing the fourth hike of 2018 in December with 61.3 percent probability instead of 68.5 percent probability just a week ago.
- The first rate hike of 2019 is priced in June with 50.9 percent probability, instead of 59.4 percent probability just a week ago.
