FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 13th May)
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 6.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 93.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 0.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 13.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 85.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 3.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 27.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 69.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 7.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 33.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 59.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 2.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 14.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 40.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 42.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have tightened, despite several FOMC member hinting at rate cuts going ahead.
- The market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 57.3 percent probability, compared to 58.3 percent last week, and 63.3 percent in the week before that.
