FedEx Forecast Falls Short Amid Trade Tensions, Shares Drop 5%

FedEx (NYSE:FDX) shares fell over 5% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the company issued a cautious outlook for the year ahead, citing volatile global demand and ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The delivery giant expects fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings of $3.40 to $4.00 per share, falling short of analysts' $4.06 forecast, according to LSEG data.

CEO Raj Subramaniam pointed to a “volatile” global demand environment and withheld full-year revenue and profit guidance, citing uncertainty over U.S. trade policies. FedEx, which is more exposed to China than rival UPS (NYSE:UPS), is facing pressure from the Trump administration’s shifting tariff strategy, which initially hiked duties on Chinese goods to 145% in April before cutting them to 30% in May.

A major blow came from the elimination of duty-free treatment for direct-to-consumer Chinese shipments under $800, impacting budget retailers like Temu and Shein. These low-cost shipments had previously helped FedEx offset declining business-to-business demand by boosting air cargo volume. Now, both FedEx and UPS are seeing profit margins squeezed as customers switch from premium air to slower, cheaper ground shipping.

Despite the uncertain outlook, FedEx posted stronger-than-expected results for Q4 ending May 31. Adjusted earnings rose to $6.07 per share from $5.41 a year earlier, beating expectations of $5.81. Revenue edged up to $22.2 billion, topping forecasts of $21.8 billion. Cost-cutting and improved export volumes lifted margins.

FedEx also announced plans to spin off its freight trucking division by June 2026, signaling a strategic shift in focus. While UPS shares dropped slightly, FedEx’s greater exposure to U.S.-China trade disruptions continues to weigh on its future performance. Investors remain cautious as geopolitical and economic uncertainties persist.