Niall Ferguson, a historian, published his comparison of President Donald Trump's diplomacy with Richard Nixon's before Trump's Vietnam remarks, complicating criticism focused on a later repost.
Ferguson's essay appeared on his Substack on Nov. 2, but a publication note says it first ran in The Free Press on Oct. 23, 2026. Brad DeLong's Nov. 2 commentary responded after the rally to the Substack posting and criticized the timing of its appearance. The dates show that the essay itself predated the remarks, while the version DeLong addressed followed them.
Trump spoke at a rally in Dubuque, Iowa, on Nov. 1, saying, “I would have won that war in one week,” and referring to an attack on Ho Chi Minh City. The city was called Saigon during the Vietnam War and served as South Vietnam's capital; Hanoi was North Vietnam's capital. Trump also criticized U.S. use of Agent Orange in forests.
Ferguson presents Nixon's 1971 opening to China as a lens for Trump's dealings with Ukraine, Iran and China. A U.S. State Department historical record of Nixon's July 15, 1971, announcement says he had accepted an invitation to visit China and described the initiative as an effort to ease tensions, not as a move against another country. Ferguson's comparison is an argument about strategy, rather than proof that the two presidents' diplomacy is equivalent.
Ferguson also says U.S. economic strength supports Trump's approach and links current growth to an AI investment boom. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data show inflation over the prior 12 months at 3.7% and unemployment at 4.2% in September 2026. For August 1974, BLS historical data put inflation at 11%, while the Federal Reserve's historical table records unemployment at 5.5%. The National Bureau of Economic Research dates the recession Ferguson cites from November 1973 to March 1975. These numbers show different economic conditions; they do not establish that AI investment caused growth or that economic strength creates diplomatic leverage.
Ferguson further characterizes Trump's preferred settlements in Ukraine and Iran as ones that could leave smaller parties with less influence. The 2026 APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting is scheduled for Nov. 18–19 in Shenzhen.
