France shows positive growth in Q2, but unlikely to add much more

The positive surprise in Q2 of France came from the external sector, which posted the strongest positive contribution since Q4 11. This was mainly due to import growth receding a noticeable 1.6pp from Q1 to just 0.5% q/q, alongside the weakening in domestic demand.

The slowdown mainly came from the energy sector. In the meantime, exports actually further gathered pace to 2.0% q/q as a marked pick-up in transport equipment offset a slowdown in services. This was probably supported by the lagged impact of the euro depreciation.

"There are factors on both the import and export sides that make another strong contribution from net exports unlikely. On the import side, we look for increased volumes due to an expected strengthening of domestic demand, possibly boosted by the prospect of a lower euro following additional monetary easing", assumes Barclays.