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Front end now prices BoE's first hike by Q1 17

In UK, the market has come through September's significant cash flows generated from coupon and redemption flows as well as the BOE's reverse auction operations to reinvest its principal holdings of the maturing Sept 2016 gilt. 

"Against this, the front end has significantly repriced expectations for the front end of the curve. At the August Inflation Report, the market was pricing the first rate move in May 2016. The flow of softer UK data and repricing of the expectations for the FOMC have combined to see expectations for the MPC's first hike pushed out to February 2017", states Barclays. 

Mechanically, this would likely raise the MPC's inflation forecasts given the divergence between market rates now and at August's IR forecast, something that the MPC may look to verbally correct via October Minutes. 

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