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We foresee a lot of shortcomings and risky economic numbers for Chinese growth and this has been confirmed by PMI data. The growth outlook in 2015 is hammered as we saw worse than expected PMI data and disappointing inflation numbers. These key figures are materializing disappointing Q1 growth rate and suggest further downside risks. After slight bounce in recent months the index has now been back in negative mood for two consecutive months.
We expect the further slowdown in growth to stretch into Q2 caused by below consensus, i.e. 6.8% growth forecast for 2015, where consensus was 7% which indirectly proposing to propel up policy easing measures to bring confidence in infrastructure investment, steady property market and decrease the cost of financing in the economy.
Chinese Yuan is currently trading at 6.1987 against dollar, OTC USD/CNY traded in 6.1995-6.2033 range.
