Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
Moldova Criticizes Russia Amid Transdniestria Energy Crisis 
JPMorgan Lifts Gold Price Forecast to $6,300 by End-2026 on Strong Central Bank and Investor Demand 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
Trump’s "Shock and Awe" Agenda: Executive Orders from Day One 
Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics 
Bank of America Posts Strong Q4 2024 Results, Shares Rise 
Increased buy-in to the carry thesis. The vast majority of US investors is bullish emerging market assets; with most participating in EM carry plays. Of note, previous holdouts who were uber-bearish EM and who have attempted repeatedly to bet on EM blow-up scenarios have recently capitulated to the prevailing favourable carry story.
EM favourites currently include Mexico, Russia, Poland, and Indonesia. Most investors expressed a preference for high-yielding markets over low-yielding markets.
Investor participation was limited in Turkey and South Africa, with most investors either sidelined or underweight in sovereign hard and local currency debt.
Persistence of disinflationary / low-inflationary processes. Most investors believe that reflationary dynamics may continue to be pushed out further and further, extending the favourable environment for the yield-hunt and for emerging market out-performance.
Trade highlights:
Bonds: Long SAGB 2048s, FX-unhedged
FX: Short SGDINR
FX: Stay long USDRUB via 3m call spreads, buy strike 59, and sell call strike 62 knock-in 65.
