UBS Projects Mixed Market Outlook for 2025 Amid Trump Policy Uncertainty 
Lithium Market Poised for Recovery Amid Supply Cuts and Rising Demand 
2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
Nigeria’s new election law leaves gaps: 5 reforms for free, fair and credible polls 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
Uranium Bull Market Gains Momentum Amid Supply Deficits and Geopolitical Tensions 
J.P. Morgan Downgrades Essity AB on Rising Costs and Weak Earnings Outlook 
Morgan Stanley Warns Against Overestimating EV Demand Boost from Rising Oil Prices 
Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
Mexico's Undervalued Equity Market Offers Long-Term Investment Potential 
Increased buy-in to the carry thesis. The vast majority of US investors is bullish emerging market assets; with most participating in EM carry plays. Of note, previous holdouts who were uber-bearish EM and who have attempted repeatedly to bet on EM blow-up scenarios have recently capitulated to the prevailing favourable carry story.
EM favourites currently include Mexico, Russia, Poland, and Indonesia. Most investors expressed a preference for high-yielding markets over low-yielding markets.
Investor participation was limited in Turkey and South Africa, with most investors either sidelined or underweight in sovereign hard and local currency debt.
Persistence of disinflationary / low-inflationary processes. Most investors believe that reflationary dynamics may continue to be pushed out further and further, extending the favourable environment for the yield-hunt and for emerging market out-performance.
Trade highlights:
Bonds: Long SAGB 2048s, FX-unhedged
FX: Short SGDINR
FX: Stay long USDRUB via 3m call spreads, buy strike 59, and sell call strike 62 knock-in 65.
