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Increased buy-in to the carry thesis. The vast majority of US investors is bullish emerging market assets; with most participating in EM carry plays. Of note, previous holdouts who were uber-bearish EM and who have attempted repeatedly to bet on EM blow-up scenarios have recently capitulated to the prevailing favourable carry story.
EM favourites currently include Mexico, Russia, Poland, and Indonesia. Most investors expressed a preference for high-yielding markets over low-yielding markets.
Investor participation was limited in Turkey and South Africa, with most investors either sidelined or underweight in sovereign hard and local currency debt.
Persistence of disinflationary / low-inflationary processes. Most investors believe that reflationary dynamics may continue to be pushed out further and further, extending the favourable environment for the yield-hunt and for emerging market out-performance.
Trade highlights:
Bonds: Long SAGB 2048s, FX-unhedged
FX: Short SGDINR
FX: Stay long USDRUB via 3m call spreads, buy strike 59, and sell call strike 62 knock-in 65.
