Goldman Sachs Sees Stronger U.S. Dollar as Global Economic Gaps Widen 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
S&P 500 Relies on Tech for Growth in Q4 2024, Says Barclays 
Macquarie Names Five Taiwan AI Stocks Set to Benefit From Data Center Growth in 2026 
Morgan Stanley Names Top AI Security and Data Center Stocks for 2026 
Mega IPOs Like SpaceX and OpenAI Could Reshape S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Portfolios in 2026 
Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
Trump’s "Shock and Awe" Agenda: Executive Orders from Day One 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge 
Bank of America Posts Strong Q4 2024 Results, Shares Rise 
Global Bond Selloff Pressures Stocks as Rising Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Fears 
Gold Cracks Below $4,500 as Safe-Haven Shine Fades; Technical Breakdown Signals Sell-on-Rallies Toward $4,000 
Gold Cracks Below $4,500 as Safe-Haven Shine Fades; Technical Breakdown Signals Sell-on-Rallies Toward $4,000 
Spying, Southampton and economic pressure cooker of the ‘richest match in football’ 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
Ever since the two major upsets during the turbulent election risk year that was 2016, FX option markets have been on a hair trigger around the issue of political event risk premium, as evidenced by the pronounced day-weights attached to general elections in the UK in June, New Zealand in September and most prominently the French presidential vote in April/May 2017.
In keeping with this trend, the December 2017 ANC party congress in South Africa, Mexican State and the Presidential election in July 2018 and Brazilian general elections in October 2018 have all been visibly priced into ZAR, MXN and BRL vol curves respectively.
The pronounced surface distortions created by these event weights have prompted questions about whether they could be overpriced, especially in the case of MXN and BRL where votes are 10-12 months away.
Analyzing the fair value of election risk is a difficult task because of the small sample size of similar events to use as comparison templates, as well as due to significant differences in the circumstances surrounding each election cycle even within the same country.
Nevertheless, we take a rough stab in this section, basing our analysis on with five recent election events: Brexit referendum, French profitability of entering into FVA selling strategies conditioned on the peak ex-ante premium of forward volatility spanning the event over pre-event spot volatility (expressed as the ratio of forward vol/spot vol).
FVAs considered being 1M in tenor with forward start date set 1-week before the event, which strikes a decent compromise between isolating event risk and ensuring realistic pricing (unlike say, 2-day FVAs starting 1-day before the event that is unrealistic). A variety of trade exit timing possibilities between 1-mo to 1-day ahead of the FVA forward start date are explored.
For each election event, it is restricted that the currency population to event-relevant ones only e.g. EUR crosses for French elections, MXN for US elections etc; the leap of faith is that sample-average conclusions are applicable more generally. Courtesy: JPM
