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Several G20 central banks' decisions have been scheduled for this week: the Swedish Riksbank, the US Fed and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Fri-day.
However, we still have a few days of calm before the storm, and we urge to capitalize these opportunity to make some general reflections on the impact which central bank decisions can have on exchange rates. We reckon the Q4 might deliver wide-spread additional easing from the ECB, BoJ and PBoC.
Most HY and commodity currencies are stirring intermittently in response to the current reality of an ongoing EM growth slump but the prospect of a late-2015 Chinese industrial upturn alongside easing from three of the four most important central banks (ECB, BoJ, PBoC).
Trade tips:
- Buy USD/PLN vs EUR/PLN vol spreads for a revival.
- Own AUD/JPY gamma heading into next week's BoJ meeting via vega-neutral long 3M ATM vs. short 1Y 25D AUD put/JPY call calendar spreads that also take advantage of rich risk-reversals.
- USD/KRW risk-reversals screen cheap and are worth buying in lieu of NDFs as directional short won plays.
- Add short EUR/CHF to existing short EUR/SEK. Recent US data (PMI, claims) keep the Fed in the game: stay long USD via options mainly versus EM (TWD, SGD, BRL) but also versus GBP.
- USD-vols are on the verge of bottoming out as central banks (ECB/BoJ) turn into realized vol generators and liquidity declines seasonally into year-end.
