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Chart and candlestick patterns formed: Gravestone doji and minor trend slide through sloping channel which is bearish in nature (refer daily plotting), the range bounded trend on intermediate trend (refer monthly plotting).
Gravestone doji pops up exactly at channel resistance, consequently, bears are lingering plummet prices towards 7DMAs.
This bearish pattern candle restrains the previous price rallies, breach below 7DMAs likely to reverse the uptrend, while both leading oscillators signal OB pressures.
The major trend of this pair has been downtrend that has gone into consolidation phase approximately from the last three years or so.
For now, bearish bias in near-term, a 1.0235-1.1425 range likely to contain.
On broader perspectives, upon failure swings near range resistance, the trend goes below EMAs despite this month’s rallies and the trend remains in range. For now, expect the range bounded trend to persist further as momentum indicators signal losing strength, current prices slid below EMAs, given the recent interest rate and commodity movements have slightly favored the NZD.
Overall, as stated before the resumption of the major downtrend is very well visible, even if you witness any abrupt upswings, that shouldn’t be deemed as panicky buying sentiment.
Instead, at spot reference: 1.0693 levels, tunnel spread which is a binary version of debit put options strategy is advocated for the intraday speculative trades, use upper strikes at 1.0728 and lower strikes at 1.0667 (i.e. 7DMA levels).
Alternatively, with a view to arresting bearish risks upto 1.0370 levels, deploy short hedge using futures contracts of mid-month tenors.
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly AUD spot index is flashing at -83 levels (which is bearish), while hourly NZD spot index was at shy above -28 (mildly bearish) while articulating (at 05:37 GMT). For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:
http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.
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