• The Australian dollar edged higher on Friday, as rising iron ore prices and modest U.S. dollar softness provided support to AUD/USD.
•Dalian iron ore futures advanced on Friday, set for a fourth weekly gain amid improved demand expectations and growing anticipation of additional policy easing from China.
• The subdued Australian jobs data released this week has shifted market pricing decisively, with a full 25 basis point RBA rate cut to 3.60% now expected at the August policy meeting.
• The next major test comes with the Q2 CPI data at month-end, where a sticky core inflation reading particularly 0.8% or higher could delay any immediate rate cut by the RBA.
• Market consensus points to a 0.7% rise in core CPI for Q2, which would see the annual pace ease to 2.7%, down from 2.9%, and aligning more closely with the RBA’s 2–3% inflation target band.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.6537(SMA 20), any close above will push the pair towards 0.6595(23.6%fib )
• Support is seen at 0.6473(38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.6442(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.6520 with stop loss of 0.6600 and target price of 0.6450
