FxWirePro: CAD/JPY Bullish/Bearish Scenarios, OTC Updates and Options Strategy Ahead of BoC’s Monetary Policy

Bullish CADJPY scenarios driven by:

Global crude oil prices still rise sustainably above $65.50/bbl triggering a renewed investment cycle 

BoC hikes 25 bps 

The BoJ does not move even if core inflation rate rises more than expected

Bearish CADJPY scenarios driven by:

NAFTA renegotiations break down and breakup fears return

BoC does not hike 

US growth expectations upgraded on policy driving a broad $ rebound

Severe deterioration of US politics and geopolitics dent US growth expectations and further widen out the broad dollar discount much further.

CADJPY is one of the better candidates since recent CAD weakness has undershot recent moves in oil and rate spreads. But any recovery in crude oil prices may cushion CAD in the upcoming days.

OTC Updates and Options Strategy:

Well, aforementioned bearish driving forces seem to be factored-in OTC hedging sentiments, please be noted that the positively skewed ATM IVs of 2m tenors indicate the hedging interests of OTM put strikes upto 82.500 levels, IVs of these tenors are trending between at 8.68%-10.11%.

Contemplating all these driving forces of CADJPY, we reckon that the underlying pair has equal chances of moving on either side but with more potential on the downside, accordingly, we advocate diagonal options strips strategy on both hedging as well as trading grounds.

As the major downtrend has gone in consolidation phase since December 2015 (refer monthly plotting for range-bounded trend), accordingly, initiate longs in 2 lots of 1m ATM -0.49 delta puts, simultaneously, add long in 1 lot of ATM +0.51 delta call of 1m expiry, the payoff function of the strategy is likely to derive positive cashflows regardless of swings but more potential from the underlying spot FX moves towards the downside.

The risk is limited to the extent of premium paid to buy the options.
The reward is unlimited till the expiry of the option.

Please note that the trader can still make money even if he was wrong, that means the strategy likely to derive handsome yields in premiums regardless of swings. But the spot FX has to move in the opposite direction really fast. The 1 call bought has to beat the cost of buying all the options and still bring in some profits.

Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly CAD spot index is displaying shy above -136 levels (bearish), while hourly JPY spot index was at 56 (bullish) while articulating (at 08:44 GMT). For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:

http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex