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FxWirePro Call Review: Maintain short positions on 10-year bund

This is yet another review of our previous call, given out in October last year to short the 10-year bund at the breakout of 162.5 with an initial target of 160 area and subsequent longer-term target of 153. The article is available here, http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-10-year-bund-heads-for-a-sell-breakout-367667

In a subsequent article, we have reaffirmed our outlook and also shared our forecast that the spread between the 2-year bund and the 10-year bund would widen over time. That review is available here, http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-Keep-riding-the-bund-short-call-review-397028 . In addition to that, In January, we had called on our readers to go short in 10-year bund and long the German benchmark stock index around 11560.

In our review on 28th February, we warned our readers that our short call in bund is under threat due to election uncertainties in Europe and warned that it might break the stop loss around 168 if the Dutch election turns out in the favor right-wing candidate Geert Wilders. However, that has not happened and thankfully we maintained the stop loss. The 10-year bund reversed course after reaching as high as 166.3

After which, the 10-year bund dropped to as low as 158.7 and tested our patience once again as it reversed course from the bottom trend line of the range as visible in the chart. We suggested maintaining patience with this call and it seems to be paying off. The European Central Bank (ECB), in recent weeks, have given explicit signals that the bank is considering winding up of its asset purchases.

After big declines in the past two weeks, the 10-year bund is trying to reverse course and is up from 160.2 to 161.3 as of now. However, we feel that while our targets of 157 and 153 might take a much longer time than originally anticipated due to weaker inflation, we expect the bund to test the lower trend line once more in this current leg and reach close to 158.   

In this article, we once again encourage our readers to have patience with the above calls.

FxWirePro launches Absolute Return Managed Program. For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/invest

 

 

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