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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2048.36
Kijun-Sen- $2059.61
Gold lost its shine after less dovish FOMC minutes. It hit a low of $2030.69 and is currently trading around $2047. Minutes from FOMC's December meeting show that rates as likely at or near its peak and a further policy action depends on economic development. The meeting minutes did not give any clue about the timing of the rate cut.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Jan increased to 91.20% from 81.40% a week ago.
Economic calendar -
Jan 4th, 2024, US ADP Employment (1:15 pm GMT)
US initial jobless claims FOMC meeting minutes (7:00 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 100.70/100. The near-term resistance is 103/104.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (Positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2030, a break below targets of $2020/ $2000/$1970. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2050 and a breach above will take it to the next level of$2060/$2070/ $2090/$2100/$2150.
It is good to buy on dips around $2020 with SL around $2000 for TP of $2150
Silver-
Silver was one of the worst performers this week and lost more than 3.5% on board-based US dollar buying. The US ISM manufacturing PMI showed a minor uptick at 47.4 in Dec, below the forecast of 47. The precious metal is trading below 21 and 55-day EMA Any close below $23 confirms further bearishness. A dip to $22.50/$21.88. It is facing significant resistance at $23.25. Any breach above $23.25 confirms minor bullishness, a jump to $23.60/$24.10/$24.60/$25/$26.
Crude oil-
WTI crude oil prices recovered sharply on Middle East supply issues. Markets eye EIA crude oil inventories.
Major resistance- $75.35/80. Significant support- $72/$70.
