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Ichimoku Analysis (4 hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1989.73
Kijun-Sen- $1978.53
Gold was one of the worst performers the previous week on board-based US dollar buying. It hit an all-time high of $2146. It is currently trading at around $1996.56.
The US economy added 199000 jobs in Nov, compared to a forecast of 180000 Unemployment rate declined to 3.7%. US ISM services PMI rose to 52.7 in Nov, compared to a forecast of 52.
Markets eye major central banks' monetary policy (Fed, ECB, BOE) for further movement.
Major economic data for the week
Dec 12th, 2023, US CPI (1:30 pm GMT)
Dec 13th, 2023, US PPI (1:15 pm GMT)
Federal funds rate (7:00 pm GMT)
Dec 14th, 2023,
SNB policy rate (8:30 am GMT)
BOE monetary policy (12:00 pm GMT)
ECB Main Refinancing rate (1:15 pm GMT)
US retail sales m/m (1:30 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 102/100. The near-term resistance is 104.40/105.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Dec increased to 98.4% from 97.1% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback of more than 4% after upbeat US jobs data. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -49% from -34%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (Positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1970, a break below targets of $1950/$1932.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2000 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2020/$2050.
It is good to sell on rallies around $2020-21 with SL around $2035 for a TP of $19952
Silver-
Silver dropped more than 10% after hitting a multi-week high. The upbeat US non-farm payroll data has decreased the chance of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed in 2024. Markets eye Fed policy statement for further movement. Any hawkish tone by the central bank will drag the precious metal further down to $20.50.
The near-term resistance to watch are $23.42,$24/$25. Minor support is $22.60/$22/$21.80.
Crude oil-
WTI crude trading weak for the seventh consecutive week, the longest losing streak since 2018. The decline in Chinese crude oil imports and weak Chinese economic data put pressure on the commodity at higher levels. It hit a low of $68.80 on Friday and showed a minor pullback after upbeat US jobs data. Major resistance- $75/80. Significant support- $68/$63.
