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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (Daily chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2038.73
Kijun-Sen- $2030.84
Gold lost its shine after strong US retail sales. It rose 0.60% m/m in Dec, compared to a forecast of 0.40%. Core retail sales ex-auto jumped 0.40% vs.0.20. It hit a low of $2001.80 and is currently trading around $2010.24.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Jan increased to 97.40% from 95.80% a week ago.
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 103/102.40 The near-term resistance is 103.75/104.50.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Weak (Positive for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (Bearish for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2000, a break below targets of $1970/$1956. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2015 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2035/$2050/$2060.
It is good to sell on rallies around 2021-22 with SL around $2035 for TP of $1958.
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Silver-
Silver trading weak following the footsteps of Gold. The precious metal lost more than 4% in the past five days. The precious metal trades below 21 and 55- EMA and long-term MA (200- MA) in the daily chart. Any break below $22.45 confirms minor bearishness. A dip to $21.88/$21.25. It is facing significant resistance around $23.25. Any close above targets $23.60/$24.
Crude oil-
WTI crude oil prices gained more than $2 due to escalation of Middle East tension. According to the American Petroleum Institute, crude oil inventories rose by 483000 this week.
Major resistance- $75.35/80. Significant support- $70/$68
Economic calendar
US building permits and Philly fed manufacturing (1:30 pm GMT)
