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Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.05626
Kijun-Sen- 1.06078
EURUSD trading flat ahead of German GDP and CPI data for further direction. It hit a low of 1.05565 at the time of writing and is currently trading around 1.05603.
The annual Core PCE index rose 3.7% from 3.8% the previous month. The PCE price index rose 0.30% m/m in line with the estimate. UoM consumer sentiment revised to 63.8 vs. 63 expected.
Major Economic Data for the Week
Oct 31st, 2023, Employment cost index q/q (12:30 pm GMT)
S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI y/y (1 pm GMT)
Chicago PMI and CB consumer confidence (1:45 and 2 p.m. GMT)
Nov 1st, 2023, US ISM Manufacturing PMI (2 pm GMT)
Federal funds rate (6 pm GMT)
Nov 2nd, 2023, BOE monetary policy (noon GMT)
Nov 3rd, 2023, US Nonfarm payroll (12:30 pm GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov increased to 93.40% from 98.80% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield recovered after upbeat US home sales data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -14.60% from -75%.
The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and below long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any break below 1.04800 confirms further bearishness. A decline to 1.0440/1.0380 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0600, and any breach above targets 1.0660/1.0700. Bullish invalidation only if it breaks below 1.0440.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – bearish
Directional movement index – Neutral
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0565-68 with SL around 1.0620 for a TP of 1.04850.
