Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.08707
Kijun-Sen- 1.09229
EURUSD showed a minor sell-off on safe-haven demand. It hit a low of 1.08286 yesterday and is currently trading around 1.08564.
US ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.70 compared to a forecast of 47.90. The fresh geopolitical tension between Yemeni Houthis and the US increased demand for safe-haven assets like the US dollar.
Major economic data for the week
Dec 5th, 2023, ISM services manufacturing PMI (3:00 pm GMT)
Dec 6th, 2023, ADP employment change (1:15 pm GMT)
Dec 7th, 2023, US Initial jobless claims (1:30 pm GMT)
Dec 8th, 2023, NFP employment change (1:30 pm GMT)
Unemployment rate
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Dec increased to 97.70% from 95.5% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback despite the US Fed chairman's hawkish comments. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -34% from -52%.
The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA, above 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any break above 1.09500 confirms further bullishness. A jump to 1.1020/1.1070/1.1100 is possible. The near-term support is around 1.0835 and any breach below targets is 1.0800/1.0760. Bullish invalidation only if it breaks below 1.0440.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – bearish
Directional movement index – Bearish
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0900-050 with SL around 1.0965 for a TP of 1.0765.


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