Jerome Powell Warns Against Politicizing the Federal Reserve, Defends Democratic Institutions 
Taiwan Central Bank Likely to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged Through 2027 
BOJ Signals More Rate Hikes as Inflation Risks Rise Amid Energy Price Pressures 
With Iran and the US signing a peace deal, where does that leave Benjamin Netanyahu? 
Indonesia Plans Higher Asset Yields to Boost Rupiah and Restore Investor Confidence 
Goldman Sachs Sees Fed Holding Interest Rates Steady Until 2027 
How AI prompting turned writerly description into an everyday skill 
China Keeps Loan Prime Rates Unchanged for 13th Straight Month as Policymakers Prioritize Credit Demand Recovery 
In the recent past, markets have been so cautious on the potential impact of Fed balance sheet normalization on interest rate volatility markets.
At a high level, though in principle the return of significant mortgage risk to the private market could drive a bid for gamma, in practice we find that options hedgers are unlikely to take down much of this supply. This suggests the direct impact on vols should be limited.
While markets have priced in a rather aggressive normalization, as net T-bill issuance again turns negative into April, and with no debt ceiling resolution expected prior the fall “drop-dead” date, we expect repo to remain rich to Fed funds.
Receive in $100k/bp of a 3Mx3M GC swap versus paying in $100k/bp of a 3Mx3M OIS swap at @ a spread of -1bp (both swaps start on 6/30/17 and mature on 9/29/17).
Stay long1-year expiry A+10 2s/5s curve caps versus A-20 curve floors.
Stay long $1bn notional of 1-year single-look A+10 2s/5s CMS curve caps (observation date 3/19/18, strike 0.41%) versus $1bn notional of 1-year singlelook A-20 2s/5s CMS curve floors (observation date 3/19/18, strike 0.11%) at a premium of 4.25c. P/L since inception: -1.2bp.
