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The US dollar index recovered after strong inflation data. It hit a low of 105.41 and is currently trading around 105.98.
US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose to 2.7% YoY compared to a forecast of 2.6%. The US economy has slowed to 1.6% at an annual rate well below the forecast of 2.5%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits fell by 5000 to 20700 in the week ended Apr 20th vs. Estimate of 214000.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in June increased to 88.40% from 88.9% a week ago.
Major resistance- 106.50/107
Major support- 105.35/104.45
Economic data for the day
Apr 30th, 2024, Chicago PMI (1:45 pm GMT)
US CB consumer confidence (2 pm GMT)
May 1st, 2024, ADP employment change (12:15 pm GMT)
US ISM manufacturing PMI (1:45 pm GMT)
Federal funds rate (6:00 pm GMT)
May 2nd, 2024, US Initial jobless claims (12:30 pm GMT)
May 3rd, 2024, US Non-farm payroll (12:30 pm GMT)
EURUSD-
EURUSD holds above the 1.0720 level after strong US inflation. Markets await German CPI data for further direction.
Major Eurozone Economic data this week
Apr 29th, 2024,German Prelim CPI m/m
Apr 30th, 2024, Core CPI Flash estimate y/y
Major resistance-1.0760,1.0800
Major support- 1.0660,1.0600
Yen-
The pair pared most of its gains on Japanese FX intervention. Any break below 154.95 confirms major bullishness.
Major Resistance- 161,163
Major support- 154.50,153.50
Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar remained strong despite weak crude oil prices. Any break below 1.3600 confirms further bearishness.
Resistance- 1.3660,1.3750
Major support- 1.3600,1.3535
